​Trading – the week ahead in forex, indices, equities & commodities.

The main event for the markets in the coming week is the Federal Reserve’s hotly-anticipated interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Improving US economic data has fuelled speculation that the Fed is ready to hike rates this month, but markets seem unconvinced that now is the time to pull the trigger. Most economists believe the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave rates as they are; and yet markets seem highly susceptible to remarks by officials in the run-up to the meeting.

Conflicting messages from policymakers is fuelling uncertainty. Hawkish remarks by Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren sparked a steep sell-off in equities and bonds on September 9th; before a dovish statement from Fed governor Lael Brainard, who warned of raising rates too quickly, provided some calm.

As we head into the quiet period when officials are not allowed to talk policy, the only certainty is that FOMC members have different opinions about the timing of the first rate rise this year.

Elsewhere,  a Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for Wednesday while the central banks of New Zealand and South Africa are also due to announce interest rate decisions.

Flash manufacturing and services data for the Eurozone on Friday will be among the week’s chief economic data releases. Earnings season is yet to get into gear but we have some company updates to follow – Ladbrokes, Kingfisher and FedEx are among the most keenly anticipated by investors.


Economic Calendar

(All times are BST)

Monday, September 19th

All day – Japan bank holiday

00:01 – UK Rightmove house price index

Tuesday, September 20th

02:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes

07:00 – German producer price inflation data

13:30 – US building permits, housing starts

Wednesday, September 21st

Tentative – Bank of Japan monetary policy statement & press conference

00:50 – Japan export, import, trade balance figures

12:00 - Bank of England quarterly bulletin

15:30 – US crude oil inventories

19:00 – Federal Reserve meeting: FOMC statement, federal funds rate, FOMC press conference

22:00 – Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision

Thursday, September 22nd

All day - Japan bank holiday

00:01 Knight Frank / Markit UK House Price Sentiment Index

13:30 US weekly unemployment claims

14:00 – South Africa Reserve Bank interest rate decision

15:00 – Eurozone consumer confidence

Friday, September 23rd

01:30 – Japan flash manufacturing PMI

08: 00 – French flash manufacturing & services PMIs

08:30 – German flash manufacturing & services PMIs

09:00 – Euro area flash manufacturing & services PMIs

13:30 – Canada retail sales, CPI inflation data

Earnings Calendar


Monday, September 19th

UK - Hotel Chocolat Group (HOTC) – Y/2016, EPS estimate 0.050

UK - Ladbrokes (LAD) – Q3/2016

Tuesday, September 20th

US – Adobe Systems (ADBE) – Q3/2016, EPS estimate 0.724

US – FedEx Corp (FDX) – Q1/2017, EPS estimate 2.790

UK – Kingfisher (KGF) – S1/2017

UK – French Connection Group (FCCN) – S1/2017

Wednesday, September 21st

US – Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) – Q2/2017, EPS estimate 1.166

UK – Saga (SAGA) – S1/2017, EPS estimate 0.090

Thursday, September 22nd

UK – Kier Group (KIE) – Y/2016, EPS estimate 1.043

Source: Bloomberg