Trading– the week ahead in forex, equities, indices and commodities

US jobs numbers are the key focus this week, with the monthly non-farm payrolls (NFP) data on Friday a litmus test for the Federal Reserve’s appetite to raise rates when it meets later in September. The last two months have produced some standout results, with employers adding over half million jobs in June and July (287,000 and 255,000 respectively). 

Fed officials have been beating a fairly hawkish drum of late, cautioning markets not to disregard the chances policymakers could vote to raise rates at its meeting later this month. In that sense, a third round of stellar jobs numbers could prove pivotal, as labour market health has been central to Fed thinking. However, minutes from the Fed’s July meeting indicated some members also want to see inflation improve before they pull the tightening trigger. Lacklustre retail sales and a looming presidential election would count against a rate rise.

Thursday marks the start of the monthly round of purchasing managers surveys. UK PMIs will be closely watched for signs of Brexit stress on the private sector during August. July’s numbers were downbeat so these will be a key test to see whether the pessimism is lingering or if the economy is set to bounce back quicker than previously thought. Important manufacturing PMIs from China and US are also set to be released later in the week.

With the European Central Bank meeting a week later, traders will eye Eurozone inflation numbers on Wednesday.

UK equity markets will be closed on Monday, but elsewhere expect activity to remain robust as market participants start to return from their summer holidays.


Economic Calendar

(All times are BST)

Monday, August 29th

All Day – UK Bank Holiday*

Tuesday, August 30th

00:30 – Japan employment figures

02:30 – Australia building approvals

Tentative – UK inflation report hearings

13:00 – German CPI inflation

15:00 – US CB Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, August 31st

00:05 – UK GfK Consumer Confidence

07:00 –UK Nationwide house price survey

10:00 – Eurozone flash CPI

13:15 – ADP non-farm employment change

15:30 – US crude oil inventories

Thursday, September 1st

02:00 – China official manufacturing PMI

02:30 – Australia retail sales

02:45 – China Caixin manufacturing PMI

08:45-09:00 – Italian, French, German and Eurozone final manufacturing PMIs

09:30 – UK manufacturing PMI

13:30 – US weekly unemployment claims

15:00 – US ISM manufacturing PMI

Friday, September 2nd

09:30 – UK construction PMI

13:30 – US non-farm employment change, average earnings


Earnings Calendar


Tuesday, August 30th

UK – Petrofac (PFC) – S1/2016, EPS estimate 0.392

UK – Time Out Group (TMO) – S1/2016

Wednesday, August 31st

US – Sears Holdings (SHLD) – Q2/2017, EPS estimate -3.480

Thursday, September 1st

UK – Hays (HAS) – Y/2016, EPS estimate 0.082

Friday, September 2nd

Source: Bloomberg

* UK (Bank Holiday): Monday 29th August 
Product Market Date Alteration UK Time
Indices UK 100 Indices 29/08/2016 Out of Hours market
Indices UK 100 Index Differentials 29/08/2016 Closed all day
Equities UK Equities 29/08/2016 Closed all day
Commodities London Cocoa, London Sugar & Robusta Coffee 29/08/2016 Closed all day
Commodities US Cocoa, US Coffee & US Sugar 29/08/2016 Open 12:30
Bonds & Interest Rates All UK Bonds & Interest Rates 29/08/2016 Closed all day