The US Presidential Election is the only show in town this week as markets shift their gaze to the key swing states in what’s become a tighter race than many had expected only a couple of weeks ago.

Markets seem to ha​d priced in a win for Hillary Clinton – which is seen as broadly supportive for equities and the US dollar.

But with the email scandal back in focus Trump could yet emerge as the victor and markets are sensitive to this possibility anew. The VIX ‘fear gauge’, which measures US equity market volatility, has risen from below 13 to around 16 in recent days. Meanwhile the Mexican peso, seen as a proxy trade for the result because of Trump’s desire to rip up Nafta, has fallen since the middle of October.

The election takes place on Tuesday, November 8th, with the result expected to be known by the time European markets open on Wednesday. Traders can expect plenty of volatility as the election nears - the Veterans Day bank holiday on Friday will be a relief.

Elsewhere, in the UK official manufacturing production data for September is due on Tuesday. On Wednesday is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision.

On the corporate earnings front, the focus shifts to the UK’s FTSE 100 with Imperial Brands, AstraZeneca, Associated British Foods, SSE, Sainsbury and SABMiller due to report. In the US we have the retail giants Macy’s, Nordstrom and JC Penney set to release quarterly earnings. In the luxury sector, Burberry and Michael Kors will update the markets.


Economic Calendar

(All times are GMT)

Monday, 7 November

07:00 – German factory orders

08:30 – UK Halifax house price index

10:00 – Eurozone retail sales

Tuesday, 8 November

ALL DAY – US Presidential Election

02:00 – China imports, exports & trade balance data

07:00 – German industrial production, imports, exports, current account & trade balance data

09:30 – UK manufacturing production (September)

15:00 – NIESR UK GDP estimate

Wednesday, 9 November

00:30 – Australia mid-year economic and fiscal outlook

01:30 – China producer and consumer price inflation data

09:00 – Italian industrial output

09:30 – UK trade figures

15:30 – US weekly crude stocks

20:00 – Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision

Thursday, 10 November

13:30 – US weekly unemployment data

Friday, 11 November

ALL DAY – US, Canada, France bank holidays

15:00 – US preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Earnings Calendar


Monday, 7 November

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) – Q3/2016

HSBC Holdings (HSBA) – Q3/2016, EPS estimate 0.114

Tuesday, 8 November

Associated British Foods (ABF) – Y/2016, EPS estimate 1.042

Imperial Brands (IMB) – Y/2016, EPS estimate 2.437

Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) – S1/2017, EPS estimate 0.104

Wednesday, 9 November

Burberry Group (BRBY) – S1/2017, EPS estimate 0.245

J Sainsbury (SBRY) – S1/2017, EPS estimate 0.103

Flybe Group (FLYB) – S1/2017

SSE (SSE) – S1/2017, EPS estimate 0.370

Thursday, 10 November

Macy’s (M) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate 0.405

Nordstrom (JWN) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate 0.516

Walt Disney (DIS) – Q4/2016, EPS estimate 1.159

3i Group (III) – S1/2017

AstraZeneca (AZN) – Q3/2016, EPS estimate 1.006

Halfords Group (HFD) – S1/2017

Michael Kors (KORS) – Q2/2017, EPS estimate 0.880

Friday, 11 November

JC Penney (JCP) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate -0.195

Manchester United (MANU) – Q1/2017, EPS estimate -0.056

SABMiller (SAB) – S1/2017, EPS estimate 1.040

Source: Bloomberg