Trading - week ahead in forex, indices, equities and commodities.

Market attention shifts from central banks to oil, as the world’s top producing nations gather in Algiers for an unofficial round of talks about the possibility of freezing output. Discussions are set to take place on the side lines of the International Energy Forum, which takes place September 26th to 28th.

Rumours that OPEC and Russia could agree curbs on production have been doing the rounds for months but this time there seems to be a broader consensus on the issue. Iran, Iraq and Russia have all made encouraging noises. Nevertheless, markets seem to think it’s unlikely that this coalition of oil exporters will strike a deal that they can all sign up to.

Crude prices rallied during the first fortnight of August on hopes of a deal, but have since retreated. Even if a deal is struck, the US is the fly in the ointment as higher prices would support shale producers stateside and bring more crude on stream. Watch for plenty of volatility in Brent and Nymex crude as conflicting reports and rumours do the rounds.

Elsewhere, the macroeconomic picture is a little muted as we head into the end of the month. After the drama of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings last week, September ends on a relatively quiet note.

But despite just a handful of data releases of note, the end of the third quarter should see some volatility as we reach the end of the three-month cycle and traders close out positions.

In the US, consumer confidence and core durable goods data are the precursors to Thursday’s final GDP reading. UK data revolves around house prices and mortgage lending. China’s manufacturing PMIs are always closely followed. Earnings releases are very thin as we look ahead to the start of Q3 earnings season in the couple of weeks.


Economic Calendar

(All times are BST)

Monday September 26th

07:00 – UK Nationwide house price index

09:00 – German Ifo business climate

15:00 – US new home sales

All day – International Energy Forum

Tuesday September 27th

15:00 – US CB Consumer confidence

All day – International Energy Forum

Wednesday, September 28th

13:30 – US core durable goods orders

15:30 – US crude oil inventories

All day – International Energy Forum

Thursday, September 29th

09:30 – UK net lending, mortgage approvals

13:00 – German consumer price index

13:30 – US final Q2 GDP reading, jobless claims

Friday, September 30th

00:05 – UK GfK consumer confidence

00:30 – Japan household spending, CPI inflation

02:45 – China Caixin manufacturing PMI

09:30 – UK current account, final Q2 GDP reading

Saturday, October 1st

02:00 – China official manufacturing PMI

Earnings Calendar


Tuesday September 27th

US –NIKE (NKE) – Q1/2017, EPS estimate 0.558

UK – A G Barr (BAG) – S1/2017

Thursday, September 29th

US – Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) – Q4/2016, 1.731

UK – Panmure Gordon (PMR) – S1/2016