The week ahead in forex, equities, indices and commodities.

Italian referendum


Italy’s referendum on constitutional reform is the main event this week. Voters head to the polls on Sunday, December 4th and we can expect to get initial results at any time from 22:00 (GMT). You can learn more about the market implications in our dedicated Italian referendum guide.

It’s been billed as a vote of confidence in prime minister Matteo Renzi’s government and a No vote would be felt across the equity markets, with Italy’s creaking banking sector especially vulnerable. It would also impact the euro as it could lead to Italy leaving the Eurozone. According to Sentix, investors think there is now a one in five chance single currency bloc will lose its third largest economy in the next year.



Italy’s vote comes just days before the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. At the meeting, the bank will decide whether to extend its €1.74 trillion bond-buying programme beyond March 2017. Critics argue stimulus is inflating asset prices without stimulating growth or inflation. A rise in French and German inflation to 0.7% in November should help the ECB argue the programme is working.

ECB chief Mario Draghi also bound to face questions on the outcome of the Italian referendum and, in the event of a ‘No’ vote, how the bank intends to respond. If Italian banks sour in the days between the referendum and the meeting, we may also see a direct policy response from the ECB.

UK data


On Monday, the UK’s services PMI is expected to offer some direction for sterling going into the week. So far, Britain’s all-important services sector has held up well following the Brexit vote. Then on Friday there is the UK’s inflation expectations report.


Economic Calendar

(All times GMT)

Sunday, 4 December

All day – Italian constitutional amendment referendum (exit polls due 22:00 GMT)

Monday, 5 December

01:45 – China Caixin services PMI

09:00 – Eurozone final services PMI

09:30 – UK services PMI

15:00 – US ISM non-manufacturing PMI

Tuesday, 6 December

03:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision and statement

07:00- German factory orders

10:00 – Revised Eurozone GDP

13:30 – US revised non-farm productivity, trade balance

15:00 – US factory orders

Wednesday, 7 December

00:30 – Australian GDP

08:30 – UK Halifax house price index

09:30 UK manufacturing production

15:00 – Bank of Canada interest rate decision and statement

15:00 – NIESR UK GDP estimate

15:30 – US crude oil inventories

23:50 – Japan final GDP reading, current account, bank lending

Thursday, 8 December

02:30 – China trade balance, imports, exports data

12:45 – ECB interest rate decision

13:30 – ECB press conference with Mario Draghi

13:30 – US weekly unemployment claims

Friday, 9 December

00:01 – RICS UK housing price balance

01:30 – China PPI and CPI inflation

06:00 – Japan preliminary machine tool orders

07:00 – Germany imports, exports, current account and trade balance figures

09:30 – UK consumer inflation expectations, trade balance figures

15:00 –US preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment


Earnings Calendar


Tuesday, 6 December

Ashtead Group (AHT) – S1/2017

Thursday, 8 December

Costco Wholesale (COST) – Q1/2017, EPS estimate 1.193

Sports Direct International (SPD) – S1/2017, EPS estimate 0.165

TUI (TUI) – Y/2016, EPS estimate 1.037

Source: Bloomberg

or LOGIN as existing customer

Any information, analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on this page is for information purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk and ETX Capital accepts no responsibility for any adverse trading decisions. You should seek independent advice if you do not understand the associated risks.