Week ahead – five things to mark in your trading diary

Last week saw stocks jump as they bounced back strongly from the post-Brexit shock. As we head into the start of Q3, attention shifts away from the UK for a time at least with the US labour market in focus.




Friday’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) report is the big data event, with investors eyeing a return to form for the US labour market after two months of lacklustre growth. May’s figure of 38,000 was one of the worst in years and well short of the 162,000 forecast. Markets anticipate a gain of 180,000 this month. The NFP report is released along with a batch of US labour market data Friday, July 8th at 13:30 (BST).

FOMC meeting minutes


The weak jobs report destroyed the chances of the Fed raising rates in June. Now Brexit makes any rate hikes this year a long shot. Minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting are due out at 19:00 on Wednesday and should offer a lot more clues about the direction of policy over the coming months and how members view the risks facing the US economy.



The start of the month means it’s time for the regular deluge of purchasing managers’ indices from around the globe. On Monday, the first report showed UK construction output slipped at its fastest pace in seven years. Britain’s key services PMI is due Tuesday, with manufacturing to follow on Wednesday. In the US, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI is due out at 15:00 on Wednesday, a day after a batch of Eurozone services PMIs.

Australia in focus


Attention is on Australia as the country’s election result is confirmed this week. Uncertainty about the result over the weekend has left the Australian dollar on the back foot. Investors are also looking to Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting on Tuesday, although the central bank is unlikely to alter rates.

Brexit watch


The fallout from Britain’s decision to leave the EU continues to affect markets, although the rally in stocks last week suggests that markets are not particularly bothered at present. From a macro perspective he prospect of lower interest rates for longer is offering support to equities, while government bond yields are anchored at record lows. The pound remains close to its weakest in 31 years.

Traders will be watching a speech on Wednesday by ECB president Mario Draghi, followed by one from his Bank of Japan counterpart Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday.