General

Week Ahead: Three major GDP releases coming

George Walker, Friday, 5 June 2020

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After the action-packed week we’ve just seen on the macro data front, we continue with a daily dose of high-impact data for the week ahead. GDP is in focus as we get growth figures from Japan, Europe and the UK. There is also a Fed interest rate decision to look forward to that will thrust USD into the spotlight, and another OPEC meeting to discuss and prevent further oil price crises from happening. Here’s everything to look out for this week.

Japanese, eurozone and UK GDP

Japan kicks us off overnight into Monday with the latest Gross Domestic Product figures. Central Banks around the world stand ready and have acted where necessary to boost economies struggling with the coronavirus pandemic in order to try and limit the potential downside of those facing recessions. GDP numbers are the main gauge of a country entering recession so these are critical for traders.

Following last week’s announcement from the European Central Bank in which they pledged to increase their ‘Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme’ (PEPP) to €1.35 trillion and extend it until June 2021, investors will want to see if it has been necessary as we get Gross Domestic Product out of the eurozone on Tuesday morning. Due to these numbers being released shortly after the announcement of additional stimulus, the market movement might be somewhat muted, however, with the economy on the verge of the worst recession since WW2, traders will still be paying close attention to see if the stimulus shot has been warranted.

The week rounds off on Friday in the UK with Gross Domestic Product numbers released before the open of European markets. As with most economies, the UK has been dramatically affected and investors and traders will monitor this to try and forecast whether the Bank of England needs to step in further to give the UK a boost.

USD

Wednesday is a big one for the USD. In the afternoon we see Consumer Price Index inflation data ahead of the latest interest rate decision and monthly budget statement from the Federal Reserve. As it stands, expectations that the Fed will amend interest rates seem unlikely so all eyes will be on the Press Conference at 19:30 BST. The Fed is responsible for keeping the world’s largest economy going so the press conference will be monitored by all with an interest in the markets. Members of the press will probe for unscripted answers about the health of the US and global economy and markets will react according to bullish or bearish sentiment given in the answers.

The main focus on Thursday will be the initial and continuing jobless claims out of the US. The coronavirus pandemic has led to huge jobless claims and unemployment being reported and as a result, these once uneventful data releases are now a focal point for many traders.

OPEC meeting

Oil markets have all but recovered from the negative prices we saw back in April as markets were stunned by the sudden price drop as supply far outweighed the lack of demand whilst economies were in complete lock down. OPEC will be holding their 179th meeting over a 48-hour window on Tuesday and Wednesday. Heavily reliant on the price of oil, the OPEC nations will be meeting to discuss how to prevent such a situation happening again. The press release can come at any time throughout the meeting so traders of oil will need to be paying close attention to newswires at all times.

All times indicated are BST.


ECONOMIC CALENDAR (all times are BST)

Monday, 8 June

00:50 JPY Gross Domestic Product
00:50 JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualised
07:00 GER Industrial Production
09:30 EUR Sentix Consumer Confidence

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:
Coupa Software Incorporated

Tuesday, 9 June

24hr OPEC Meeting
02:30 AUD National Australia Bank’s Business Conditions
02:30 AUD National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence
07:00 GER Imports
07:00 GER Exports
07:00 GER Trade Balance
10:00 EUR Employment Change
10:00 EUR Gross Domestic Product
11:00 USD NFIB Business Optimism Index
13:55 USD Rebook
21:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

UK Company Announcements:

AVEVA Group
Big Yellow Group

US Company Announcements:

Brown Forman Corporation
Chewy Inc

Wednesday, 10 June

24hr OPEC Meeting
01:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence
02:30 CNY Producer Price Index
02:30 CNY Consumer Price Index
02:30 AUD Home Loans
02:30 AUD Investment Lending for Homes
13:30 USD Consumer Price Index
13:30 USD Consumer Price Index Core
13:30 USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy
15:30 USD EIA Crude Oil stocks Change
19:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement
19:30 USD FOMC Press Conference

UK Company Announcements:

Paragon Group

US Company Announcements:

N/A

Thursday, 11 June

02:00 AUD Consumer Inflation
13:30 USD Producer Price Index
13:30 USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
15:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
23:00 NZD Westpac Consumer Survey
23:30 NZD Business NZ PMI

UK Company Announcements:

Babcock International
CMC Markets
Johnson Matthey

US Company Announcements:
Lululemon Athletica Inc

Friday, 12 June

05:30 JPY Industrial Production
07:00 GBP Industrial Production
07:00 GBP Manufacturing Production
07:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance
07:00 GBP Total Trade Balance
07:00 GBP Gross Domestic Product
08:00 EUR EcoFin Meeting
09:00 CNY FDI – Foreign Direct Investment
09:30 GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations
10:00 EUR Industrial Production
13:30 USD Import Price Index
13:30 USD Export Price Index
15:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
18:00 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

N/A

 

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