US Elections, General

Week Ahead: the US Presidency hangs in the balance

George Walker, Friday, 6 November 2020

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Last week saw the major US indices post impressive gains despite there being no definitive outcome to an election night that didn’t end. We have already got a glimpse into the volatility of the election, and any updates will be paramount for market direction over the week ahead.

With the last remaining states’ vote-counting deadlines looming, the outcome will likely be the biggest driver of overall sentiment, but there are still some key macroeconomic events for us to follow.

 

With America’s future in the balance, here’s what else is happening...

We kick off the week with the latest unemployment figures for Switzerland, followed shortly thereafter by Germany’s import and export data.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is expected to speak no fewer than three times this week, starting Monday morning. Following the decision to maintain rates at 0.10% but increase asset purchases, cable traders will be eagerly watching to find out whether negative rates are a possibility.

Chinese Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index data hits the wires in the early hours of Tuesday morning, which could be a good gauge of inflation in the world’s second-largest economy. Then, an hour before European markets open for trading, we get Unemployment Data out of the UK. The Government has supported employment throughout the pandemic by adopting and extending its furlough scheme. Will it be enough to prevent unemployment hitting worrying levels in the UK?

As we roll into Wednesday, we get the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s latest stance on interest rates. After Australia cut its own rate from 0.25% to 0.1% last week, we look ahead to hearing what economy-boosting measures the central bank will take. While analysts expect no change to rates, there could be room for expansion in their QE program. The press conference could be key for interpreting short-term changes in monetary policy.

Thursday kicks off with German Consumer Price Index figures, potential impacting the euro. As the day progresses, the cable is in focus as both Industrial & Manufacturing Production numbers are released at the same time as Gross Domestic Product data out of the UK. The country’s GDP has progressively started to recover since the major drop in April, but remains subdued since the start of the year as the pandemic continues to prolong an economic recovery. Will we see an improvement, or could there be a further decline?

Later in the day, BoE Governor Bailey is set to make his next speech of the week as markets open in Europe, followed by Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims from the US, which will be a focal point for investors to assess the health of the US job market. At the same time, Consumer Price Index data could be worth monitoring as inflation has renewed attention from the Federal Reserve when determining monetary policy.

We round off the week with preliminary Employment and Gross Domestic Product data out of Europe. GDP is in focus in all major economies and could set the tone for how both the euro and European indices trade on the last day of the week. BoE Governor Bailey is expected to make his third and final speech of the week in the afternoon.

Due to the uncertainty surrounding who will be the next President of the United States, volatility remains high so traders will need to keep a constant eye on exposure and any trades held overnight.

All times indicated are GMT.


ECONOMIC CALENDAR (all times are GMT)

Monday, 9th November

05:00 JPY Coincident Index Preliminary
05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index Preliminary
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
07:00 GER Imports
07:00 GER Exports
07:00 GER Trade Balance
07:00 GER Current Account
09:30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence
10:35 GBP BoE’s Governor Bailey Speech
14:00 GBP BoE’s Haldane Speech
21:45 NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales
23:50 JPY Current Account
23:50 JPY Bank Lending

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:
McDonald’s Corporation

Tuesday, 10th November

00:30 AUD National Australia Bank’s Business Conditions
00:30 AUD National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence
01:30 CNY Consumer Price Index
01:30 CNY Producer Price Index
07:00 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate
07:00 GBP Claimant Count Rate
07:00 GBP Claimant Count Change
07:00 GBP Average Earnings Including Bonus
07:00 GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus
10:00 GER ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment
10:00 GER ZEW Survey – Current Situation
10:00 EUR ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment
13:55 USD Redbook Index
20:00 NZD REINZ House Price Index
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence

UK Company Announcements:

DCC
Land Securities
Meggitt
Persimmon

US Company Announcements:

N/A

Wednesday, 11th November

01:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
01:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
01:00 NZD Monetary Policy Statement
02:00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference
21:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
23:50 JPY Producer Price Index
23:50 JPY Machinery Orders

UK Company Announcements:

Flutter Entertainments
Taylor Wimpey
Wetherspoon (J.D)

US Company Announcements:
Air Products and Chemicals

Thursday, 12th November

00:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations
04:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Index
07:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance
07:00 GBP Trade Balance, non-EU
07:00 GBP Total Trade Balance
07:00 GBP Total Business Investment
07:00 GBP Industrial Production
07:00 GBP Manufacturing Production
07:00 GBP Gross Domestic Product
07:00 GER Consumer Price Index
07:00 GER Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
08:00 GBP BoE’s Governor Bailey Speech
09:00 EUR Economic Bulletin
10:00 EUR Industrial Production
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Consumer Price Index
13:30 USD Consumer Price Index Core
13:30 USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy
18:30 CAD BoC’s Wilkins Speech
19:00 USD Fed’s Williams Speech
19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement
21:30 NZD Business NZ PMI

UK Company Announcements:

WH Smith
B&M
Mediclinic International
National Grid

US Company Announcements:

Walt Disney Company
Cisco Systems

Friday, 13th November

07:00 EUR EcoFin Meeting
07:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices
10:00 EUR Employment Change Preliminary
10:00 EUR Trade Balance
10:00 EUR Gross Domestic Product Preliminary
13:30 USD Producer Price Index
13:30 USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy
14:00 GBP BoE’s Tenreyro Speech
15:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
16:00 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
16:00 GBP BoE’s Governor Bailey Speech
18:00 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

N/A

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