General, Forex

Week Ahead: Nonfarms the standout in a packed week

George Walker, Friday, 28 August 2020

In typical bank-holiday fashion, the weather is dreadful but there’s plenty going on in the markets this week to brighten up your day. Data releases from Asia will shed more light on how successful the likes of China has been in staging an economic recovery. There’s also oil inventory data, a RBA interest rate decision and of course, the nonfarm payrolls from the US.

Here’s everything to look out for this week.

Asia recovering?

We start the trading week with overnight data released from Asia. Japan kicks off with Retail Trade and Industrial Production figures before Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI data released from China. Traders will be watching these releases to determine the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on China’s GDP and to see the progress of the recovery. In the early afternoon there is preliminary Consumer Price Index inflation data out of Germany which could have an impact on the euro. Although not an immediate focus, as global economies start to recover from the economic hit from the pandemic, inflation figures could start to become all important once again.

Japanese Unemployment data and the second round of Chinese Manufacturing PMI data hit the wires in the very early hours of Tuesday morning ahead of the Interest Rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA has already reduced interest rates down to 0.25% since the start of the coronavirus pandemic and are not expected to amend rates again at this meeting. It will, however, be interesting to hear the language used in the statement to get an understanding of the current economic health of Australia and try to forecast future plans and whether there might even be a need to cut rates further.

The remainder of the day sees regular Manufacturing PMI updates throughout from Germany, eurozone, UK, Canada and the United States. It could also be worth paying attention to the eurozone Unemployment rate and preliminary CPI data released midmorning.

Oil, AUS and services PMI data

For traders of Oil, storage inventory data will need to be monitored this week. At 21:30 on Tuesday and 15:30 on Wednesday the weekly crude oil stock numbers have become ever more important in contributing to the recovery in the oil prices which have almost closed the gap to the dramatic drop seen in March. Drawdowns are becoming more regular recently as less oil in storage indicates a higher demand. Will the amount in storage continue to fall or start to rise once again?

Midweek could provide traders with a pause for breath having the least high-impact data of the week. Overnight GDP data from Australia could have a limited impact following the Interest Rate decision the day before. ADP Employment change data is likely to be the only high impact data of significance as traders and investors view this as a precursor for the main Nonfarm Payroll figures at the end of the week.

The focus on Thursday will be on the Services PMI data releases from China, Germany, eurozone, UK and the US. Services PMI contributes a large amount towards the GDP of a country so we could see volatility in the related currencies as the numbers are released throughout the day. Initial and continuing Jobless Claims from the US in the afternoon could also be worth monitoring.

Nonfarm payrolls

As usual, the first Friday of the month sees the release of the Nonfarm Payroll jobs data from the US. Last time out there was a surprise to the upside which gave markets an initial boost. This remains one of the most volatile economic macro data releases so traders will need to make a note of this at 13:30 BST as we can see large spikes in a very short period after the announcement. Headline numbers are important, as are any revisions to previous figures and majority of global markets are affected by these numbers. It goes without saying that all eyes will be focused on this as one of the standout trading events of the week.

All times indicated are BST.


ECONOMIC CALENDAR (all times are BST)

Monday, 31 August

00:50 JPY Retail Trade
00:50 JPY Large Retailers’ Sales
00:50 JPY Industrial Production
02:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence
02:00 NZD ANZ Activity Outlook
02:00 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI
02:00 CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI
02:00 AUD TD Securities Inf
02:00 AUD TD Securities Inflation
03:00 AUD RBA Annual Report
07:00 GER Import Price Index
07:30 CHF Real Retail Sales
13:00 GER Consumer Price Index Preliminary
13:30 GER Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices Preliminary
15:30 USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index
23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Mfg Index
23:45 NZD Building Permits

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

Zoom Video communications Inc

ETX Capital Webinar:

REGISTER HERE

Tuesday, 1 September

00:00 AUD Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI
00:30 JPY Jobs / Applicants Ratio
00:30 JPY Unemployment Rate
01:30 JPY Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
02:30 AUD Building Permits
02:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI
05:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
05:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
08:55 GER Unemployment Rate
08:55 GER Unemployment Change
08:55 GER Markit Manufacturing PMI
09:00 EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI
09:30 GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI
10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index Preliminary
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index – Core Preliminary
14:30 CAD Markit Manufacturing PMI
14:45 USD Markit Manufacturing PMI
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index
15:00 USD ISM New Orders Index
15:00 USD Construction Spending
21:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

N/A

ETX Capital Webinar:

REGISTER HERE

Wednesday, 2 September

02:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product
07:00 GER Retail Sales
09:30 GBP Markit Construction PMI
10:00 EUR Producer Price Index
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change
14:45 USD Factory Orders
15:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
23:30 AUD AiG Performance Index

UK Company Announcements:

Barratt Developments

US Company Announcements:

Brown Forman Corporation

ETX Capital Webinar:

17:00 Live Company Group Investor Webinar

19:30 2 Hr Special: Trading the World's Largest Markets

REGISTER HERE

Thursday, 3 September

00:00 AUD Commonwealth Bank Services PMI
00:00 AUD Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI
01:30 JPY Jibun Bank Services PMI
02:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI
07:00 EUR Industrial Production
07:30 CHF Consumer Price Index
08:55 GER Markit Services PMI
08:55 GER Markit PMI Composite
09:00 EUR Markit Services PMI
09:00 EUR Markit PMI Composite
09:30 GBP Markit Services PMI
10:00 EUR Retail Sales
12:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts
13:30 USD Trade Balance
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
13:30 CAD Imports
13:30 CAD Exports
13:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade
14:45 USD Markit Services PMI
14:45 USD Markit PMI Composite
15:00 USD ISM Services PMI
15:00 USD ISM Services New Orders Index
15:00 USD ISM Services Employment Index
15:00 USD ISM Services Prices Paid
15:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change

UK Company Announcements:

Gulf Keystone Petroleum

Melrose

US Company Announcements:

Broadcom Inc
PetroChina Company Limited
Lululemon Athletica Inc
DocuSign Inc

ETX Capital Webinar:

19:00 Crisis Control Webinar Series: TBC

REGISTER HERE

Friday, 4 September

01:30 AUD Retail Sales
07:00 GER Imports
07:00 GER Exports
07:00 GER Trade Balance
07:00 GER Current Account
13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings
13:30 USD Average Weekly Hours
13:30 USD Labour Force Participation Rate
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate
13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate
13:30 CAD Participation Rate
13:30 CAD Average Hourly Wages
13:30 CAD Net Change in Employment
15:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index
18:00 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

N/A

ETX Capital Webinar:

REGISTER HERE

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