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Week Ahead: NFPs to spur the markets again?

George Walker, Thursday, 25 June 2020

MKT-6831_WA-NFP_blog

Last month’s Non-Farm Payrolls provided the US with a much-needed boost amidst a sea of negative data releases and uninspiring reports from the economy. Now, these figures become even more significant as the world’s largest economy faces a second wave of the coronavirus. Better-than-expected figures for the payrolls once again could galvanise the economy and infuse optimism in the markets. There is also a key GDP data release from the UK that will be interesting to dissect as shops have reopened, and also GDP from China that could set the tone of the week.

German and Asian data kicks off the week

Consumer Price Index inflation data out of Germany kicks off the macroeconomic updates on Monday. Inflation remains a key gauge for central bank’s monetary-policy decision making so could cause volatility in the EUR ahead of the preliminary figures from the eurozone on Tuesday.

Important data is released overnight in the form of the unemployment rate from Japan along with Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing figures from China. Collectively, the numbers out of China make up a large proportion of GDP so could set the tone for the European markets open on Tuesday.

UK GDP to deflate any optimism once again?

Last time out, Gross Domestic Product data from the UK, like most, made for disappointing reading as the lockdown hit the UK hard. Having gently started to re-open the economy, the UK could show a slight improvement after a downbeat forecast from the BoE. Could we see the start of a slow recovery? Or will hopeful optimism be deflated once again? Canadian GDP also follows later in the afternoon.

The German Unemployment rate is the first high impact data released on Wednesday which will be dominated by Manufacturing PMI data from the eurozone, Germany, UK and the US as the day progresses. Often viewed as the precursor for the Non-farm Payrolls, US ADP employment numbers will be worth monitoring ahead of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting which are released later in the evening.

Thursday sees the eurozone unemployment rate which could cause movement in the euro during the morning session of European trading, and for those with an interest in trading the CHF, CPI inflation data out of Switzerland hits at 07:30 BST.

US Non-farm Payrolls

In a slight break from the norm, US Non-farm Payrolls and employment data hits on Thursday as opposed to the usual first Friday of each month.

Last time out there was a huge surprise to the upside which gave markets an initial boost. This remains one of the most volatile economic macro data releases so traders will need to make a note of this at 13:30 BST as we can see large spikes in a very short period after the announcement. Headline numbers are important, as are any revisions to previous figures and majority of global markets are affected by these numbers. It goes without saying that all eyes will be focused on this as the standout trading event of the week.

Services PMI data from Germany, eurozone and the UK round off a week littered with high impact data.

All times indicated are BST.


ECONOMIC CALENDAR (all times are BST)

Monday, 29 June

00:50 JPY Retail Trade
00:50 JPY Large Retail Trade
10:00 EUR Services Sentiment
10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence
10:00 EUR Industrial Confidence
10:00 EUR Business Climate
10:00 EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator
13:00 GER Consumer Price Index
13:00 GER Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices
15:00 USD Pending Home Sales
15:30 USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

Micron Technology Inc

Tuesday, 30 June

00:50 JPY Jobs/Applicants Ratio
00:50 JPY Unemployment Rate
00:50 JPY Industrial Production
02:00 CNY Non -Manufacturing PMI
02:00 CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI
07:00 GBP Nationwide Housing Prices
07:00 GBP Gross Domestic Product
07:00 GER Import Price Index
07:30 CHF Real Retail Sales
08:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index Preliminary
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index – Core Preliminary
13:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product
13:55 USD Redbook Index
14:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
14:45 USD Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index
15:00 USD Consumer Confidence
21:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Mfg Index
23:45 NZD Building Permits

UK Company Announcements:

easyJet

US Company Announcements:

FedEx Corporation

Wednesday, 1 July

00:00 AUD Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI
02:30 AUD Building Permits
02:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI
06:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index
07:00 GER Retail Sales
08:55 GER Unemployment Rate
08:55 GER Markit Manufacturing PMI
09:00 EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI
09:30 GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change
14:45 USD Markit Manufacturing PMI
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index
19:00 USD FOMC Minutes

UK Company Announcements:

Sainsbury (J)

US Company Announcements:

General Mills Inc
Constellation Brands Inc

Thursday, 2 July

02:30 AUD Imports
02:30 AUD Exports
02:30 AUD Trade Balance
07:30 CHF Consumer Price Index
10:00 EUR Producer Price Index
10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate
13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings
13:30 USD Average Weekly Hours
13:30 USD Labour Force Participation Rate
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Trade Balance
13:30 CAD Imports
13:30 CAD Exports
13:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade
13:30 CAD Markit Manufacturing PMI
15:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index

UK Company Announcements:

Smith (DS)
Meggitt

US Company Announcements:

N/A

Friday, 3 July

00:30 AUD Retail Sales
07:00 GER Imports
07:00 GER Exports
07:00 GER Trade Balance
07:00 GER Industrial Production
08:55 GER Markit Services PMI
08:55 GER Markit PMI Composite
09:00 EUR Markit Services PMI
09:00 EUR Markit PMI Composite
09:30 GBP Markit Services PMI
15:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
18:00 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
23:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

N/A

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