General, Forex

Week Ahead market preview: Will jobless claims continue to fall?

George Walker, Friday, 14 August 2020

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Don’t be fooled into thinking a week that’s not saturated with major high-impact announcements will mean there will be little going on in the markets. Minutes of past monetary policy meetings, oil inventory and CPI data from the US, as well as several other releases in the coming days could all have a significant bearing on the markets. The highlight might just be US jobless claims after last week showed positive figures. Here’s exactly what to look out for this week.

The start of the coming week is relatively light on high-impact macro data. The only notable updates come from Japan in the early hours of Monday morning with preliminary Gross Domestic Product and Industrial Production updates. Although only a preliminary reading, GDP figures for the majority of economies has been drastically affected by the coronavirus pandemic so those bullish of the Japanese Yen will want to see better than expected readings.

RBA minutes

Minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting from the Reserve Bank of Australia are released overnight into Tuesday. The results of these minutes we already know from their last interest rate decision, however there could be subtle changes in the wording which could cause volatility in the AUD overnight.

Oil inventory and global CPI data

For traders of oil, storage inventory data will need to be monitored this week. At 21:30 on Tuesday and 15:30 on Wednesday the weekly crude oil stock numbers have become ever more important in contributing to the recovery in the oil price. Drawdowns are becoming more regular recently as less oil in storage indicates a higher demand. Will the amount in storage continue to fall or start to rise once again?

The high-impact data starts to ramp up as the week progresses. Consumer Price Index data will be the theme of Wednesday as we see these figures released from the UK, the eurozone and Canada throughout the day. The importance of CPI data, which is a major gauge of inflation, has subsided somewhat since the pandemic took hold but remains key in terms of central bank’s monetary policy decision making and could therefore cause currencies to fluctuate on the release.

US FOMC minutes and jobless claims

The evening will see all eyes focused on the minutes from the FOMC meeting from the Federal Reserve which took place last week. As with the RBA on Tuesday, traders will be focused on any changes to the wording of the minutes to determine whether the Federal Reserve could inject more stimulus in the US economy which could give markets a boost if it materialises.

Initial and continuing jobless claims hit the wires from the US on Thursday. Since the pandemic took hold, they have been increasingly important when painting a picture of the health of the US employment market, so traders of US indices and the USD will need to take note of these figures. Last week, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell below one million for the first time since the pandemic hit the US. A further fall in jobless claims this week could symbolise real momentum in an economic recovery.

The final trading day of the week will be dominated by preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI data from Germany and the eurozone, the UK and the United States. Collectively, these numbers make up a country’s Gross Domestic Product and will give a good indication to the current health of the country’s economy. Pending how these numbers read, we could see a flurry of trading activity into the end of the trading day. Generally speaking, stronger than expected numbers could be viewed as bullish, whereas weaker numbers could see a bearish end to the week.

All times indicated are BST.


ECONOMIC CALENDAR (all times are BST)

Monday, 17 August

24 hr EUR Eurogroup Meeting
00:50 JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualised Preliminary
05:30 JPY Industrial Production
13:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

N/A

ETX Capital Webinars:

19:00 ETX Trading Strategy Course 3/4: The practical aspects of trading

Tuesday, 18 August

02:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
13:30 USD Building Permits
13:30 USD Housing Starts
13:55 USD Redbook Index
21:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

UK Company Announcements:

BHP Group
KAZ Minerals
Persimmon

US Company Announcements:

Walmart Inc
Home Depot Inc
Sea Limited

Wednesday, 19 August

00:50 JPY Imports
00:50 JPY Exports
00:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total
01:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index
02:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales
07:00 GBP Consumer Price Index
07:00 GBP Core Consumer Price Index
07:00 GBP Producer Price Index
07:00 GBP PPI Core Output
07:00 GBP Retail Price Index
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index – Core
13:30 CAD Consumer Price Index
13:30 CAD Consumer Price Index – Core
13:30 CAD BoC Consumer Price Index Core
15:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
19:00 USD FOMC Minutes

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

NVIDIA Corporation
Lowe’s Companies
Pinduoduo Inc
TJX Companies
Target Corporation

ETX Capital Webinars:

18:30 2-Hour Special: Trading with a busy lifestyle

Thursday, 20 August

07:00 GER Producer Price Index
07:00 GER Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey
07:00 CHF Imports
07:00 CHF Exports
07:00 CHF Trade Balance
07:30 CHF Industrial Production
11:00 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Survey – Orders
12:30 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
13:30 CAD ADP Employment Change
15:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Estee Lauder Companies Inc
ETX Capital Webinars:
19:00 Corellian Trading Academy webinar - TBC

Friday, 21 August

00:30 JPY National CPI ex Fresh Food
00:30 JPY National CPI ex Food, Energy
01:30 JPY Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Preliminary
08:30 GER Markit Manufacturing PMI Preliminary
08:30 GER Markit Services PMI Preliminary
08:30 GER Markit PMI Composite Preliminary
09:00 EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI Preliminary
09:00 EUR Markit Services PMI Preliminary
09:00 EUR Markit PMI Composite Preliminary
09:30 GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI Preliminary
09:30 GBP Markit Services PMI Preliminary
09:30 GBP Retail Sales
09:30 GBP Retail Sales ex Fuel
13:30 CAD Retail Sales
13:30 CAD Retail Sales ex Autos
13:30 CAD New Housing Price Index
14:45 USD Markit Manufacturing PMI Preliminary
14:45 USD Markit Services PMI Preliminary
14:45 USD Markit PMI Composite Preliminary
15:00 USD Existing Home Sales
15:00 USD Existing Home Sales Change
15:00 EUR Consumer Confidence Preliminary
18:00 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

Deere & Company

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