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Week Ahead market preview: Equity markets continue to react to Coronavirus panic

George Walker, Friday, 27 March 2020

Equity markets continue to react to Coronavirus panic

Equity markets remain fixated on updates relating to the coronavirus with many major economies having been semi-locked down. The affect has been profound leading to the most intense volatility since the financial crisis. Equity markets have been devastated by the potential recession, governments have had to step in restricting movement in order to try and quell the spread of the virus amongst populations and central banks have had to dramatically ease monetary policy in order to limit the economic damage. The question now is, has this been enough to stem the panic in financial markets?

Over the coming week we should start to see the impact the coronavirus pandemic has had on economies as we see a plethora of macro-economic data which is going to be scrutinised closer than ever. Investors will be expecting poor numbers, the question is, will it be as bad as markets are expecting, or are we in for a surprise, the results of these data releases could well dictate whether markets start the road to recovery, or slide further?

Tuesday is the first major day as we kick off in Asia with the Japanese unemployment rate followed by Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing (services) PMI data released from China in the early hours. This could set the tone as European markets head to the open when we see Gross Domestic Product data from the UK and employment data from Germany along with Consumer Price Index inflation numbers from the Eurozone as a whole. GDP figures from Canada round off the high impact data for the day.

Manufacturing PMI data litters the schedule on Wednesday as it’s released from Germany, the Eurozone, UK, Canada and the United States. Eurozone unemployment figures as well as ADP Employment Change from the US, often viewed as a precursor for the big jobs number at the end of the week, are also released throughout the day.

We’re in for a big climax to the week when we get Services data from Germany, the Eurozone and the UK before the afternoon is dominated by US employment data. Historically speaking the Nonfarm payroll numbers, as well as Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate are extremely volatile. This is likely to be the case more than ever this week as traders and investors will want to see if the coronavirus fears have fed into this round of numbers. Services data closely follows the NFP so this could well be a reason for investors to pile into heavily sold off shares or maintain a negative outlook.

Volatility is likely to be rife once again over the coming week, the questions is, will markets react positively or negatively to the onslaught of economic data?


All times indicated are BST.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR (all times are BST)

Monday, 30th March

08:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator
09:30 GBP Consumer Credit
09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals
10:00 EUR Services Sentiment
10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence
10:00 EUR Industrial Confidence
10:00 EUR Business Climate
10:00 EUR Economic Sentiment
13:00 GER Consumer Price Index
13:00 GER Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices
15:00 USD Pending Homes Sales
15:30 USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index
22:45 NZD Building Permits

UK Company Announcements:
Pennon

US Company Announcements:
N/A

Tuesday, 31st March

00:30 JPY Jobs / Applicants Ration
00:30 JPY Unemployment Rate
00:50 JPY Retail Trade
00:50 JPY Industrial Production
00:50 JPY Large Retailers’ Sales
01:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence
01:00 NZD ANZ Activity Outlook
01:00 AUD New Homes Sales
02:00 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI
02:00 CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI
07:00 GBP Gross Domestic Product
07:30 CHF Real Retail Sales
08:55 GER Employment Change
08:55 GER Unemployment Rate
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index – Core
13:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product
14:00 USD S&P / Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
14:45 USD Chicago Purchasing Manager Index
21:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Change
22:30 AUD AiG Performance of Mfg Index

UK Company Announcements:
Chesnara
Diageo
Smiths Group

US Company Announcements:
N/A

Wednesday, 1st April

00:00 AUD Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI
00:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook
00:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook
00:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Index
00:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index
01:30 AUD Building Permits
02:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI
07:00 GER Retail Sales
08:00 EUR Non-Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
08:55 GER Markit Manufacturing PMI
09:00 EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI
09:30 GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI
10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change
14:30 CAD Markit Manufacturing PMI
14:45 USD Markit Manufacturing PMI
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing New Orders
15:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

UK Company Announcements:
Topps Tiles
Wizz Air

US Company Announcements:
N/A

Thursday, 2nd April

07:00 GER Exports
07:00 GER Imports
07:00 GER Trade Balance
07:30 CHF Consumer Price Index
09:30 GBP Markit Construction PMI
10:00 EUR Producer Price Index
13:30 USD Trade Balance
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
13:30 CAD Imports
13:30 CAD Exports
13:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade
15:00 USD Factory Orders
15:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
22:30 AUD AiG Performance of Services Index

UK Company Announcements:
Saga

US Company Announcements:
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc

Friday, 3rd April

02:30 AUD Retail Sales
07:00 GER Industrial Production
08:55 GER Markit Services PMI
08:55 GER Markit PMI Composite
09:00 EUR Markit Services PMI
09:00 EUR Markit PMI Composite
09:30 GBP Markit Services PMI
10:00 EUR Retail Sales
13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings
13:30 USD Average Weekly Hours
13:30 USD Labour Force Participation Rate
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate
14:45 USD Markit Services PMI
14:45 USD Markit PMI Composite
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid
18:00 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

UK Company Announcements:
CMC Markets

US Company Announcements:
N/A

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