Market Event, General

Week Ahead: Nonfarm Payrolls steal the show in otherwise slow news week

George Walker, Friday, 26 March 2021

It's a slow week ahead, without any notable data released on the first trading day of the week. Market direction could be dictated by any surprise news events over the weekend or general optimism or pessimism on Monday. This is followed by another relatively light day of macro-economic updates Tuesday, with only Unemployment data out of Japan overnight and preliminary Consumer Price Index figures released from Germany in the early afternoon.
 

Oil prices hinge on current demand

Tuesday does, however, see the first of two weekly oil inventory updates in the form of API Weekly Crude Oil Stock at 21:30, and EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on Wednesday at 15:30. Both Brent and Nymex had a volatile past 6 weeks bouncing between support and resistance levels. Inventory data will reveal how much oil is in storage in the US, and is also a good indicator of supply and demand. With oil prices as sensitive as they currently are, could we see exaggerated moves following these updates?

High-impact data starts to ramp up as the week progresses, starting with Chinese Manufacturing PMI data in the early hours of Wednesday morning. China is considered the factory of the global economy, and as the world starts to show signs of recovery, this macro update could set the tone for the midweek trading session.
 

Currency traders take note

Gross Domestic Product data from the UK hits the wires an hour before European markets open, followed by German Unemployment data. Preliminary Consumer Price Index Inflation figures are released at 10:00 Wednesday, followed by a speech from POTUS in the early afternoon, just a few minutes before the US ADP Employment update and Canadian GDP numbers. It goes without saying that Wednesday's updates are all high-volatility, so traders of GBP, EUR, USD, and CAD will need to be on the ball this week.

We are set for another busy day on Thursday, starting overnight with Australian Retails Sales and more Chinese Manufacturing data.

As the sun rises in Europe, Retail Sales figures out of Germany precede a Consumer Price Index Inflation update from Switzerland. Although in isolation, these have the potential to move currencies; Manufacturing PMI data release from Germany and the Eurozone, the UK, US, and Canada will likely dominate traders' attention as the manufacturing sector makes up a large proportion on a country's GDP, and as such, could be key to driving sentiment when establishing economic growth.

Thursday's usual Initial and Continuing Jobless claims from the US could be fairly muted ahead of the main event of the week on Friday.
 

Is it a good Friday for employment data?

The final trading day of the week, and first Friday of the month, sees the release of the Nonfarm Payroll jobs data from the US. This remains one of the most volatile macro-economic data releases and potentially even more so following the renewed focus on US employment by the Federal Reserve. Though recent commentary from the Fed has stated they remain committed to their low interest rate monetary policy and current stimulus programme, markets can often get ahead of themselves so traders will need to make a note of this at 13:30 UK time.

We may see large volatile price action in global indices and the USD in a very short period following the announcement. Headline numbers are important, as are any revisions to previous numbers and the majority of global markets could be affected by these figures.

All times indicated are GMT.
 


Economic Calendar

(All times are GMT)

Monday, 29th March

09:30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals
15:30 USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index
22:45 NZD Building Permits

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

N/A

Tuesday, 30th March

00:30 JPY Unemployment Rate
00:30 JPY Jobs / Applicants Ratio
00:50 JPY Retail Rate
00:50 JPY Large Retailer Sales
08:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator
10:00 EUR Services Sentiment
10:00 EUR Industrial Confidence
10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence
10:00 EUR Business Climate
10:00 EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator
13:00 GER Consumer Price Index Preliminary
13:00 GER Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices Preliminary
13:55 USD Redbook Index
14:00 USD Housing Price Index
15:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
15:00 USD Consumer Confidence
21:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

UK Company Announcements:

Barr (A.G.)
Chesnara
3i Group
Pennon

US Company Announcements:

Lululemon Athletica
Chewy

Wednesday, 31st March

00:50 JPY Industrial Production Preliminary
01:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence
01:00 NZD ANZ Activity Outlook
01:30 AUD Building Permits
02:00 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI
02:00 CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI
07:00 GBP Gross Domestic Product
08:55 GER Unemployment Rate
08:55 GER Unemployment Change
09:00 CHF ZEW Survey – Expectations
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index Preliminary
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index – Core Preliminary
13:00 USD President Biden Speech
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change
13:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product
14:00 CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin
14:45 USD Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index
15:00 USD Pending Home Sales
15:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
22:00 NZD ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
22:30 AUD AiG Performance of Mfg Index
23:00 AUD Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI

UK Company Announcements:

Gulf Keystone Petroleum
Topps Tiles

US Company Announcements:

Micron Technology
Walgreens Boots Alliance

Thursday, 1st April

00:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook
00:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Index
00:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook
00:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index
00:50 JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex
01:30 JPY Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
01:30 AUD Home Loans
01:30 AUD Imports
01:30 AUD Exports
01:30 AUD Trade Balance
01:30 AUD Retail Sales
02:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing Index
07:00 GER Retail Sales
07:30 CHF Consumer Price Index
07:30 CHF Real Retail Sales
08:30 CHF SVME – Purchasing Managers' Index
08:55 GER Markit Manufacturing PMI
08900 EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI
09:00 EUR Economic Bulletin
09:30 GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI
11:00 USD OPEC Meeting
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
13:30 CAD Building Permits
14:30 CAD Markit Manufacturing PMI
14:45 USD Markit Manufacturing PMI
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing New Orders
15:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change

UK Company Announcements:

Equiniti
Next
Sportech
Renew Holdings

US Company Announcements:

N/A

Friday, 2nd April

13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings
13:30 USD Average Weekly Hours
13:30 USD Labour Force Participation Rate

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

N/A

 

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