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Daily Technical Round-up: Sideways trading as phase 1 of US-Sino deal completes

Michael Baker, Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD

Pivot: 1.3001

Scenario 1: Four-hour trend support holds the lows once again and we see a brief pullback. Trend line is in focus, if it breaks then it's the 38.2% and the 23-Dec low between 1.2921/04. Any further then there are multiple daily lows between 1.2826/.2768 followed by the 50% fib at 1.2737.

Scenario 2: Brief positive for bulls that the trend support has once again held, trading is battling with the 50-day SMA. Last three weekly pivots fall between 1.3035/3137, yesterday's high touched into this area. Overcoming here then we can start pushing for 6/7/8-Jan highs between 1.3170/.3212. End of 2019 and start of 2020 high at 1.3284 is the next target, this area is also a 61.8% retracement from the post election high to 23- Dec low.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing a small break of a trend resistance and another touch of trend support from yesterdays low.

15 GBP

EURUSD

Pivot: 1.1125

Scenario 1: Small pullback yesterday but ended the day relatively unchanged. Still trading above daily trend support but below 1.1165/99. This level has broke recently but not managed to sustain a hold above. 1.1238 held the highs back in Dec and Aug '19, we break here then its the 23.6% fib at 1.1278. Above 1.1286/1311 then it's the six-month highs at 1.14.

Scenario 2: Below trend support at 1.1080 we have he 20-Dec low which is just above the 50% fib at 1.1059. 1.1000 is a daily support which has held since the 11 October. Below here then we could be looking at last year's low at 1.0879.

Chart: Daily chart shows activity between the 200-day SMA and the 50. Market seems finely balanced here, waiting for activity to gauge the next move. 

15 EUR

Germany 30

Pivot: 13,437

Scenario 1: Continuing to slowly trend down in the very short term, looks like market is waiting for a break higher and hold above the weekly pivot at 13,319. Buyers will want this to get back above 13,459 and continue to push for the all-time high at 13,600.

Scenario 2: Below 13,321/235 then it's the major daily support between 12,987/884. Fib retracements will come into play if that major support gives way.

Chart: Four-hour showing the activity downwards trending ever so slightly since last week's high. Market showing patience as it awaits its next possible move. Pushing below weekly pivot then its the 38.2% fib sitting on 10-Dec low which gets main focus.

15 DAX

Wall Street

Pivot: 28,930

Scenario 1: Sideways trading as we enter the day where phase 1 of the US-Chine trade deal completes. Looking to hold above recent multiple weekly pivots between 28,661/604. Target is to push past and sustain a push above 29,000.

Scenario 2: Below 28,661/604 then we look for 28,362/119 and then the 28,000 level. December low/September high at 27,313 may come into focus if we start to see rapid pullbacks.

Chart: Daily chart showing continuous push higher.

15 Dow

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