US Elections, General

Week Ahead: EU leaders all aboard, and UK earnings continue

George Walker, Friday, 19 February 2021

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We start the week overnight into Monday with the latest interest rate announcement from Peoples Bank of China. Recent data out of China has been steadily improving, even to the point of the PBoC contemplating raising interest rates – while a change isn’t expected at this meeting, it could show intent for future rate hikes. Being the world’s second-largest economy, this could set the tone for the first day of trading.

 

Ramping it up Tuesday

The EURGBP pair could be in focus on Tuesday morning as we get Employment data from the UK and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data out of the Eurozone – anyone trading either currency may want to follow along for any subsequent price action.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivers their latest stance on interest rates. Analysts expect no change in the current interest rates, however, there could be room for expansion in their QE program. The press conference could be key for interpreting short-term changes in monetary policy. Announcements relating to interest rates have the potential to move the relating currencies aggressively, so traders should monitor any kiwi positions held overnight.

Germany’s GDP is expected Wednesday morning – a major driver of the Eurozone and its economies, it’s all eyes on the EUR and GER30 ahead of this data.  Otherwise, a quiet day with only New Home Sales, followed by Crude Oil Inventories on the horizon.

 

EU leaders meet, and US data floods in

Thursday is a big day for the US as we get Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and preliminary Gross Domestic Product updates ahead of the US open. Going on last week’s Jobless Claims, markets seem to be reacting negatively to bad data as the Fed seems to be steadfast with current policy. With US stimulus not expected to change in the imminent future, the bulls will want to continue to see improving data in order to justify markets trading near record highs.

The ongoing pandemic has decimated economies over the past year, and with the vaccine rollout and potential return to normalcy in the near future, the two-day EU leaders summit taking place all day Thursday and into Friday could be important for the Eurozone. The major decision-makers in attendance continue to work out a path to boost the heavily-impacted Eurozone.

 

A slow end to the week

A quiet Friday on the macro front sees the latest Swiss Employment data and Gross Domestic Product figures which could cause volatility for the CHF. Generally speaking, better-than-expected figures could be viewed as bullish for the Franc, and worse numbers could be viewed as bearish. We wrap the week up with the US Federal Budget on Friday evening.

Finally, with the majority of US companies having already reported earnings, the focus is still on the UK. Among those reporting are Associated British Foods, HSBC, InterContinental Hotels, Anglo-American, BAE Systems, and Standard Chartered.

All times indicated are GMT.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR (all times are GMT)

Monday, 22nd February

01:30 CNY PboC Interest Rate Decision
09:00 GER IFO – Business Climate
09:00 GER IFO – Current Assessment
09:00 GER IFO – Expectations
13:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index
15:30 USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business
21:45 NZD Retail Sales
21:45 NZD Retail Sales ex Autos

UK Company Announcements:

Associated British Foods

Dechra

US Company Announcements:

Agora

Tuesday, 23rd February

01:30 CNY House Price Index
07:00 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate
07:00 GBP Claimant Count Rate
07:00 GBP Claimant Count Change
07:00 GBP Average Hourly Earnings Including Bonus
07:00 GBP Average Hourly Earnings Excluding Bonus
07:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index – Core
13:55 USD Redbook Index
14:00 USD Housing Price Index
14:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
15:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
15:00 USD Consumer Confidence
17:30 CAD BoC’s Governor Macklem Speech
21:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

UK Company Announcements:

Croda International
HSBC Holdings
InterContinental Hotels

US Company Announcements:

Home Depot
Medtronic
Square
Intuit

Wednesday, 24th February

00:30 AUD Wage Price Index
00:30 AUD Construction Work Done
01:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
01:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
02:00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference
07:00 GER Gross Domestic Product
09:00 CHF ZEW Survey – Expectations
15:00 USD New Home Sales
15:00 USD New Home Sales Change

UK Company Announcements:

Lloyds
Petrofac

US Company Announcements:

NVIDIA
TJX Companies
Bilibili

Thursday, 25th February

24hr EU Leaders Summit
00:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence
00:00 NZD ANZ Activity Outlook
05:00 JPY Coincident Index
05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index
07:00 GER Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey
10:00 EUR Services Sentiment
10:00 EUR Business Climate
10:00 EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator
10:00 EUR Industrial Confidence
10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defence
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation
13:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index Preliminary
13:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index Annualised Preliminary
15:00 USD Pending Home Sales
15:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
16:00 USD Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity
20:00 USD Fed’s Williams Speech
21:00 NZD ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
21:45 NZD Imports
21:45 NZD Exports
21:45 NZD Trade Balance
23:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food & Energy
23:50 JPY Retail Trade
23:50 JPY Large Retailer Sales
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Preliminary

UK Company Announcements:

Anglo American
BAE Systems
Centrica
Drax
Evraz
Grafton Group
Hikma Pharmaceuticals
Howden Joinery
Inchape
Mondi
Serco
St James Place
Standard Chartered

US Company Announcements:

Salesforce.com
Airbnb
American Tower Corporation
NetEase
Moderna
Workday
Autodesk
Vmware
Dell Technologies

Friday, 26th February

24hr EU Leaders Summit
05:00 JPY Construction Orders
05:00 JPY Housing Starts
07:00 GBP Nationwide Housing Prices
07:00 GER Import Price Index
07:30 CHF Employment Level
08:00 CHF Gross Domestic Product
08:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator
13:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index
13:30 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index
13:30 USD Personal Income
13:30 USD Personal Spending
13:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index
13:30 CAD Industrial Product Price
13:30 CAD Building Permits
14:45 USD Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index
15:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
18:00 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

UK Company Announcements:

Man Group
Rightmove

US Company Announcements:

Draftkings

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