News & Analysis

All quiet on the Western Front, meanwhile...

Andrew Saks, Wednesday, 28 April 2021

Last week may well have heralded a tremendous rally for some of the most established listed derivatives exchanges in the world, with the FTSE 100 having forged ahead to the lofty heights of 6,900 a momentum which gathered ground very quickly before tailing off.

Although the massive upward surge in the value of Britain's top 100 stocks has now calmed down, their combined value remains at a remarkable 6,980 today which is still up 37 points over this time a week ago.

Stagnation, however, is not the trader's friend, and whilst the FTSE 100 index along with various peers among the established Western exchanges have been flourishing before settling at high levels, the volatility over the past 24 hours has been firmly planted in the vast marketplaces of the Indian subcontinent.

Nevermind the fearmongering, large companies in India are forging ahead, with publicly listed stock from every sector except for metal and perhaps unsurprisingly pharmaceutical companies having raced to huge highs.

The SENSEX index jumped a tremendous 789 points today, led by extremely impressive earnings in India's banking and automotive sectors.

Vehicle production in India is absolutely huge, and represents one of the country's industries of huge importance. It doesn't just consist of domestic market names such as Tata and Mahindra, nor of course is it solely represented by the ubiquitous Hindustan Ambassador, a modern day version of the 1950s Morris Oxford which are as much of a part of the cityscape across large metropolitan areas as the London Taxi is in the world's financial markets capital.

Far from parochial, India's car manufacturing industry includes locally built Toyota, Suzuki, Hyundai, Nissan, Ford, Volkswagen, and many more. Even Mercedes-Benz manufactures 11 models in India. All of these brands export their Indian-build products to various markets worldwide.

Aside from entire vehicles, some global firms such as BMW have official component manufacturers in India, and TATA, one of the largest consultancy and engineering firms in the world manufactures huge amounts of commercial vehicles, and also owns Jaguar and Land Rover in the United Kingdom.

A force to be reckoned with is an understatement.

Today's rally was led by the earnings release of Axis Bank and TVS motors, boosting investor confidence, which not only contributed to the huge rise in SENSEX listed stock, but also caused the Nifty to end higher by 1.4% at 14,865 levels. The broader markets also ended in positive in the range of 0.7-0.8%, and market-wide futures rollover has been strong with the median basis holding close to fair level of 42-43 bps, while roll proportion is strong at 60%.

These stellar results have overshadowed fears of economic contraction caused by renewed lockdowns and a government-led move toward more curtailment of economic and personal liberty.

Indeed, some analysts within the subcontinent are now demonstrating a potentially long term bright outlook, stating that apart from any new lockdowns in Tier 2 & Tier 3 cities, the Nifty index can be expected to trade towards an all time high in May.


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