Indices, Forex

It’s all Geopolitical in the week ahead

David Papier, Thursday, 31 May 2018

Last week markets across the board were volatile, selling off from near record highs. Investors were spooked by the possibility that Italy, the third-largest eurozone economy, could deliver a boost to eurosceptic parties in a snap election that could be held by the end of July. An election at this point could also signal an impending referendum on Italy’s euro membership, carrying potentially huge implications for the single currency. The Euro, as a result, was trading at a 10 month low of €1.151 vs the US Dollar before staging a moderate recovery the following day.

The mid-week sell-off also saw major indices fall aggressively. The German DAX declined 200 points, Dow Jones fell 390 points and the FTSE 100 continued to come off record highs to the tune of 97 points on Tuesday. The worst performer by some way was unsurprisingly the Italian Index, which gapped down and closed a huge 790 points lower.

However, there was a moment of relief as the two anti-establishment parties were again renewing efforts to form a government rather than force the country back to the polls, potentially avoiding the ‘Ita-Leave’ situation. This helped Milan-listed equities snap a five-day losing streak.

The AUD might be worth keeping an eye on this week when the Reserve Bank of Australia hits us with their latest interest rate decision early Tuesday morning, followed by the announcement of the GDP readings early Wednesday.

On Thursday, the recently battered Euro will be hoping for a solid Eurozone GDP figure to spark some optimism in any sort of recovery. Of course, the main focus this week will once again fall on geopolitical progress, with all eyes and ears waiting to see if Italy can resolve their political struggles.


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Economic Calendar (all times are in BST)


Monday, 4th June

02:30 AUD Retail Sales
15:00 US Factory Orders Total Orders MoM

Tuesday, 5th June

02:30 AUD Balance of Payments Current Account Balance
02:30 AUD Balance of Payments Net Exports Impact
05:30 RBA Cash Rate
09:00 EU PMI Composite
15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey Employment Index
15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey New Orders Index
15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey Prices Index
15:00 US PMI Non-Manufacturing Index

Wednesday, 6th June

02:30 AUD GDP QoQ
02:30 AUD GDP YoY
13:30 CAD Trade Balance
13:30 US Trade Balance Trade Balance Deficit MoM
17:00 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Net Change

Thursday, 7th June

02:30 AUD Trade Balance Deficit Goods and Services
07:00 DE Manufacturing Orders Industrial Orders MoM
08:30 UK Housing Index House Prices MoM
10:00 EU GDP Revised QoQ
10:00 EU GDP Revised YoY
13:30 US Unemployment Claims WoW

Friday, 8th June

00:50 JPN Current Account - Account balance Total in Yen
00:50 JPN GDP Revised Annualised QoQ
00:50 JPN GDP Revised QoQ
04:00 CN Trade Balance Exports YoY
04:00 CN Trade Balance Imports YoY
04:00 CN Trade Balance YoY
07:00 DE Industrial Production Industrial Output MoM
13:15 CAD Housing Starts YoY
13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate

Corporate Calendar

Monday, 4th June

Tungsten Corp – Trading Statement
Dell Technologies – Earnings Announcement
Palo Alto Networks - Earnings Announcement

Tuesday, 5th June

AO World – Final Results

Wednesday, 6th June

IG Group Holdings – Trading Statement
WH Smith Plc – Trading Statement

Thursday, 7th June

Auto Trader – Final Results
CMC Markets Plc – Final Results
MITIE Group Plc - Final Results


Zynga Inc [0R0J] (10.2 p)
Artemis Aim Vct 2 Plc [AAM] (2 p)
Associated British Foods PLC [ABF] (11.7 p)
Anglo-Eastern Plantations PLC [AEP] (0.04 USD)
Animalcare Group PLC [ANCR] (2 p)
Arena Events Group Plc Ord 1p [ARE] (0.9 p)
Alliance Trust Plc [ATST] (3.39 p)
AVIVA PLC 8 3/4% CUM [AV.A] (4.38 p)
Billington Holdings PLC [BILN] (11.5 p)
Cineworld Group PLC [CINE] (3.1 p)
Connect Group PLC [CNCT] (3.1 p)
Christie Group PLC [CTG] (1.75 p)
Debenhams PLC [DEB] (0.5 p)
Daily Mail and General Trust PLC [DMGT] (7.1 p)
Societatea Energetica Electrica Sa [ELSA] (0.75 USD)
Electra Private Equity Plc [ELTA] (25 p)
Evraz Plc [EVR] (0.13 USD)
F&C Capital & Income Investment Trust Plc [FCI] (2.45 p)
F&C UK Real Estate Investments Ltd [FCRE] (1.25 p)
Flowtech Fluidpower Plc [FLO] (3.85 p)
Helios Underwriting PLC [HUW] (1.5 p)
Inland Homes PLC [INL] (0.65 p)
Inspired Energy PLC [INSE] (0.39 p)
Investec [INVR] (7.26 p)
ITE Group PLC [ITE] (1.5 p)
Judges Scientific PLC [JDG] (22 p)
JPMorgan Global Growth Income Plc [JPGI] (3.04 p)
London Security PLC [LSC] (40 p)
Learning Technologies Group [LTG] (0.21 p)
LXI Reit Plc [LXI] (1.5 p)
LXI Reit Plc [LXI] (0.5 p)
Majedie Investments Plc [MAJE] (4 p)
Marshalls PLC [MSLH] (6.8 p)
Marshalls PLC [MSLH] (4 p)
Nasstar PLC [NASA] (0.06 p)
Northern Venture Trust Plc [NVT] (2 p)
Princess Private Equity Holding Ltd [PEY] (0.28 EUR)
Princess Private Equity Holding Ltd [PEYS] (0.28 EUR)
Perpetual Income And Growth Investment Trust Plc [PLI] (5.25 p)
PJSC Polyus [PLZA] (1.19 USD)
PJSC Polyus Level 1 [PLZB] (1.19 USD)
Public Joint Stock Company Polyus Gdr Each Repr 0.5 Shs Reg S Wi [PLZL] (1.19 USD)
Phoenix Spree Deutschland [PSDL] (4.4 p)
RM Secured Direct Lending Plc [RMDL] (1.63 p)
Rotala PLC [ROL] (1.65 p)
Restore PLC [RST] (3.33 p)
RTC Group PLC [RTC] (2.3 p)
Restaurant Group (The) PLC [RTN] (10.6 p)
Raven Russia [RUSC] (1.63 p)
M&C Saatchi PLC [SAA] (7.4 p)
Sainsbury (J) PLC [SBRY] (7.1 p)
SIG PLC [SHI] (2.5 p)
Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust Plc [SMT] (1.68 p)
Sopheon PLC [SPE] (2.5 p)
Spectra Systems Corporation [SPSC] (0.06 USD)
Spectra Systems Corporation [SPSY] (0.06 USD)
Synthomer [SYNT] (8.5 p)
Tharisa Plc [THS] (1.48 p)
Temple Bar Investment Trust Plc [TMPL] (8.75 p)
Topps Tiles PLC [TPT] (1.1 p)
Utilico Investments Limited [UTL] (1.88 p)
Victrex PLC [VCT] (13.42 p)
Volta Finance Ltd [VTA] (0.16 EUR)
Warehouse Reit Plc [WHR] (1.15 p)
Warehouse Reit Plc [WHR] (0.35 p)
Watkin Jones Plc [WJG] (2.47 p)
Young & Co's Brewery PLC [YNGN] (10.2 p)

Friday 11th May

G3 Exploration Ltd – Final Results
Volex Group Plc – Final Results

Sources: Bloomberg/Companies


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