US Elections, General

Week Ahead: will the momentum continue into another week?

George Walker, Friday, 13 November 2020

WA-Momentum_blog

Last week saw markets get a shot in the arm following news that Pfizer has  made progress with their vaccine trial. US markets were boosted to record highs as investors cheered the hope that we may regain some normalcy once again.

As markets trade near record highs, here’s what to watch...

Industrial Production and Retail Sales data out of China kicks us off in the early hours of Monday morning, followed shortly thereafter by Industrial Production figures from Japan. A speech from the current Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia could cause price action in the aussie on Monday morning. There is not much in the way of notable US or European data out on the first trading day of the week.

Tuesday afternoon sees the release of US Retail Sales figures ahead of a speech from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Those invested in UK markets and GBP will be wanting to pay attention to this as the UK has a busy end to 2020. The massive jobs support program implemented by the UK Government to limit the damage of the pandemic, as well as both the UK and EU negotiating trade deals means that any updates from the BoE will be carefully scrutinised.

As Tuesday evening rolls in, we get Import and Export data from Japan just before midnight. Being a large import and export nation for multiple major economies, these figures could be worth keeping an eye on, particularly for anyone trading JPY.

CPI Inflation data

Attention falls on Consumer Price Index inflation figures from the UK, Eurozone, and Canada on Wednesday. Inflation, albeit an almost forgotten term amid coronavirus, remains a major focal point for major central banks as they try to position monetary policy when economies begin to recover from recessions.

 

Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims

Employment figures are the theme of the day on Thursday, starting with Australian Unemployment data, followed by Canadian ADP Employment and Initial and Continuing Jobless claims from the US.

The US jobs market is almost front and center of monetary policy decision-making from the Federal Reserve, so these numbers deserve the important status attached to them since the economic downturn. Generally, the stronger the jobs market, the less need for Fed intervention, so a strong number could be viewed as bullish for the USD, whereas a weak number could be seen as bearish.

Australian Retail Sales numbers precede the important Interest Rate Decision from the Peoples Bank of China. China, on the face of it, has appeared to have been recovering well so expectations are that they will maintain their current rate. This could be a signal of an economy continuing to strengthen so unless there’s talk of a rate cut, it would appear that this could be a bullish sign.

German Producer Price Index data is sandwiched between Retail Sales from the UK and Canada to round off the final trading day of the week. Retail Sales numbers are an indicator of consumer spending so the higher the number, the more confidence people have to spend signaling a stronger economy.

 

G20 Meeting

A noteworthy event taking place throughout the day on Friday and continuing into the weekend is the G20, taking place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This meeting is attended by finance ministers and central bank governors, and with so many influential people gathered in one place to discuss issues in global economies, traders will need to consider financial market positioning into the weekend.

All times indicated are GMT.


ECONOMIC CALENDAR (all times are GMT)

Monday, 16th November

02:00 CNY Industrial Production
02:00 CNY Retail Sales
02:00 CNY NBS Press Conference
04:00 JPY BoJ’s Masai Speech
04:30 JPY Industrial Production
04:30 JPY Capacity Utilisation
08:40 AUD RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech
13:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing
13:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales
22:30 AUD RBA’s Kent speech

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

KE Holdings

Tuesday, 17th November

00:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
13:30 USD Retail Sales
13:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos
13:30 USD Retail Sales Control Group
13:30 USD Import Price Index
13:30 USD Export Price Index
13:55 USD Redbook Index
14:00 GBP BoE’s Governor Bailey Speech
14:15 USD Industrial Production
14:15 USD Capacity Utilisation
15:00 USD Business Inventories
17:00 GBP BoE’s Ramsden Speech
19:00 USD Fed’s Williams Speech
21:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
21:45 NZD Producer Price Index – Input
21:45 NZD Producer Price Index – Output
22:00 AUD RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech
23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index
23:50 JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance
23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total
23:50 JPY Imports
23:50 JPY Exports

UK Company Announcements:

easyJet
Petra Diamonds
Assura
Big Yellow
Experian
Homeserve
Telecom Plus
Aggreko

US Company Announcements:

Walmart
Home Depot

Wednesday, 18th November

00:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales
00:30 AUD Wage Price Index
07:00 GBP Consumer Price Index
07:00 GBP Core Consumer Price Index
07:00 GBP Retail Price Index
07:00 GBP Producer Price Index – Input
07:00 GBP Producer Price Index – Output
07:00 GBP PPI Core Input
07:00 GBP PPI Core Output
08:00 EUR Non-Monetary Policy ECB Meeting
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index – Core
10:30 GBP BoE’s Haldane Speech
13:30 USD Building Permits
13:30 USD Housing Starts
13:30 CAD Consumer Price Index
13:30 CAD Consumer Price Index – Core
13:30 CAD BoC Consumer Price Index Core
15:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
17:15 USD Fed’s Williams Speech

UK Company Announcements:

British Land
Halfords
SSE

US Company Announcements:
NVIDIA

Lowe’s Companies
Target

Thursday, 19th November

EUR EU Leaders Summit
00:30 AUD Fulltime Employment
00:30 AUD Part-Time Employment
00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate
00:30 AUD Employment change
00:30 AUD Participation Rate
07:00 CHF Industrial Production
07:00 CHF Imports
07:00 CHF Exports
07:00 CHF Trade Balance
10:00 EUR Current Account
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
13:30 CAD ADP Employment Change
15:00 USD Existing Home Sales
15:00 USD Existing Home Sales Change
15:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
16:00 USD Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity
23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index
23:30 JPY National CPI ex Food & Energy
23:00 JPY National CPI ex Fresh Food

UK Company Announcements:

Charles Stanley
CMC Markets
Halma
Investec
Kingfisher

US Company Announcements:

NetEase
Workday

Friday, 20th November

EUR G20 Meeting
00:00 NZD New Zealand General Election
00:30 JPY Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
00:30 AUD Retail Sales
01:30 CNY PBoC Interest Rate Decision
07:00 GBP Retail Sales
07:00 GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel
07:00 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
07:00 GER Producer Price Index
13:30 CAD Retail Sales
13:30 CAD Retail Sales ex Autos
15:00 EUR Consumer Confidence Preliminary
18:00 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

UK Company Announcements:

Sage Group

US Company Announcements:
N/A

 

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