General

Week Ahead: Why this week's macro data might be inconsequential

George Walker, Friday, 22 May 2020

MKT-6784_WeekAhead-MacroData_blog

Now that the coronavirus pandemic shows some sign of slowing down, focus is beginning to shift back towards global politics. Tensions are slowly building again between the US and China. If there is a re-escalation in the trade war this week, the volatility it could cause will likely overshadow any macro data impact, rendering it inconsequential. That being said, despite having a shorter week than normal as UK and US equities will be closed for a holiday, there are still a few notable high-impact events to be aware of (should things stay calm on the trade war front).

How is Germany’s economy performing?

Firstly, on Monday we get Gross Domestic Product numbers out of Germany. Viewed as the powerhouse of Europe, German GDP data will show how one of the healthiest economies is fairing during the coronavirus pandemic. Notably, prior to the pandemic the German economy was struggling due to repercussions from the US-China trade war. It goes without saying that the EUR and Germany 30 could see volatility off the back of these GDP figures, so for those with an interest in those markets, this will be important data to watch first thing Monday morning.

We get two financial stability reports from the European Union in the morning and then the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in the evening. Published just twice a year, these financial stability reviews provide an overview of the soundness of economies and any risks or vulnerable areas that could damage financial stability.

Inflation data that might impact monetary policy

Thursday will be the busiest day on the macro front as preliminary German Consumer Price Index inflation data preceding Durable Goods Orders from the US in the afternoon. Both data releases are major gauges of inflation and therefore monitored closely by the respective central banks in relation to monetary policy. Focus continues in the US as we get preliminary GDP from the world’s largest economy which could set the tone for US markets open as the numbers are released an hour before along with the increasingly volatile initial and continuing jobless claims.

Final day of trading

The final trading day of the month begins with Tokyo Consumer Price Index, Unemployment Rate and Industrial production data from Japan in the early hours so traders can expect some volatility in JPY overnight. German retail sales and eurozone preliminary CPI data hits the wires as European markets open, followed by Canadian Gross Domestic Product in the early afternoon.

Although we have a relatively quiet week ahead on the data front, global tensions are beginning to rise once again as the apparent deterioration of relations between the world’s largest economies, US and China, could become centre stage and investors may focus on the fragile trade agreement between the nations.

Recent history shows that tensions between the US and China can cause large market volatility so traders will need to monitor the situation closely.

All times indicated are BST.


 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR (all times are BST)

Monday, 25 May

06:00 JPY Coincident Index
06:00 JPY Leading Economic Index
07:00 GER Gross Domestic Product
07:30 CHF Industrial Production
09:00 GER IFO – Business Climate
09:00 GER IFO – Current Assessment
09:00 GER IFO – Expectations
18:30 CAD BoC’s Governor Poloz Speech
23:45 NZD Trade Balance
23:45 NZD Exports
23:45 NZD Imports

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

N/A

Tuesday, 26 May

05:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index
07:00 GER Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey
07:00 CHF Trade Balance
07:00 CHF Exports
07:00 CHF Imports
13:30 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Preliminary
13:30 USD Personal Consumption Prices Preliminary
13:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index
14:00 USD Housing Price Index
14:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
15:00 USD New Home Sales
15:00 USD Consumer Confidence
15:30 USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

N/A

Wednesday, 27 May

09:00 EUR EU Financial Stability Review
12:55 USD Redbook Index
15:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
21:00 NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report
21:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

UK Company Announcements:

British Land

Britvic

Provident Financial

US Company Announcements:

Royal Bank of Canada

Autodesk Inc

Thursday, 28 May

02:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence
02:00 NZD ANZ Activity Outlook
10:00 EUR Services Sentiment
10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence
10:00 EUR Industrial Confidence
10:00 EUR Economic Sentiment Index
13:00 GER Consumer Price Index Preliminary
13:00 GER Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices Preliminary
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defence
13:30 USD Non Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft
13:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Preliminary
13:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Annualised Preliminary
13:30 USD initial Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
13:30 CAD Current Account
15:00 USD Pending Homes Sales
15:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
16:00 USD Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity
16:00 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
16:00 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

Salesforce.com Inc

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Toronto Dominion Bank

Vmware Inc

Dell Technologies

Friday, 29 May

00:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index
00:30 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy
00:30 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food
00:30 JPY Jobs/Applicants Ratio
00:30 JPY Unemployment Rate
00:50 JPY Retail Trade
00:50 JPY Large Retailers’ Sales
00:50 JPY Industrial Production
07:00 GER Import Price Index
07:00 GER Retail Sales
09:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index Preliminary
10:00 EUR Consume Price Index – Core Preliminary
13:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index
13:30 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index
13:30 USD Personal Income
13:30 USD Personal Spending
13:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product
13:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product Annualised
13:45 USD Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index
15:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
18:00 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
18:00 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

N/A

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