General, Market Event

Week Ahead: NFPs and a vital BoE meeting

George Walker, Friday, 31 July 2020

Week Ahead 2 AUG

It’s another busy week that will be dominated by two major events. The first comes from the UK, with the BoE announcing its interest rate decision as it looks to stem the impact of the second coronavirus wave. The other main highlight from the week will be the non-farm payrolls that will allow investors to assess the exact damage the pandemic has had in the month of July. But is the jobs market still recovering, or will it show a rise in unemployment? Here’s everything you need to know ahead of this trading week.

PMI and CPI data to start the week

We kick off an action-packed week with Manufacturing PMI data overnight from China and as the day progresses, we see the same figures released from Germany and the eurozone, the UK and the United States. For many of these economies, manufacturing figures contribute towards a large proportion of Gross Domestic Product so could set the initial tone for the week ahead.

We see Consumer Price Index inflation data out of Japan overnight into Tuesday. Although inflation remains low around the globe, these figures can still have an impact on the value of JPY so holders or traders will need to be aware of these.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will update us prior to the European markets open in the morning when we get the interest rate announcement accompanied by a rate statement. The RBA has already reduced interest rates down to 0.25% since the start of the coronavirus pandemic and are not expected to amend rates again at this meeting. It will, however, be interesting to hear the language used in the statement to get an understanding of the current economic health of Australia and try to forecast future plans.

For traders of oil, storage inventory data will need to be monitored this week. At 21:30 on Tuesday and 15:30 on Wednesday the weekly crude oil stock numbers have become ever more important in contributing to the recovery in the oil price. Drawdowns are becoming more regular recently as less oil in storage indicates a higher demand. Will the amount in storage continue to fall or start to rise once again?

Wednesday will be dominated by Services PMI data from China, the eurozone, Germany, UK and the US as the day progresses. Often viewed as the precursor for the Non-farm Payrolls, US ADP employment numbers will be worth monitoring in the afternoon ahead of the main NFP figures on Friday.

JPY traders will need to take note of the preliminary GDP figures from Japan overnight on Thursday which should give a good indication as to the health of the Japanese economy.

Bank of England’s important decision

As the sun rises in the UK, all eyes will be on the Bank of England and their interest rate decision. The BoE has a very difficult period ahead as they try to limit the damage of the UK lockdown and position the

economy as best as possible for a strong recovery. The UK has been one of the hardest hit economies as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and the central bank has had to take dramatic measures to prevent an economic meltdown. Will the potential of a second wave of the coronavirus force the hand of the BoE to take further action on monetary policy?

We’ve seen the impact interest rate decisions and statements can have on major currencies and indices so traders of GBP or UK equities will need to pay close attention to this before markets open on Thursday. The Bank of England Governor Andrew Baily will also be making a speech at 12:30.

US jobs data

Initial and continuing jobless claims hit the wires from the US on Thursday which since the pandemic took hold have been increasingly important when painting a picture of the health of the US employment market, so traders of US indices and the USD will need to take note of these figures.

As usual, the first Friday of the month sees the release of the non-farm Payroll jobs data from the US.

Last time out there was a surprise to the upside which gave markets an initial boost. This remains one of the most volatile economic macro data releases so traders will need to make a note of this at 13:30 BST as we can see large spikes in a very short period after the announcement. Headline numbers are important, as are any revisions to previous figures and majority of global markets are affected by these numbers. It goes without saying that all eyes will be focused on this as one of the standout trading events of the week.

All times indicated are BST.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR (all times are BST)

Monday, 3 August

01:30 JPY Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI

02:00 AUD TD Securities Inflation

02:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI

07:30 CHF Consumer Price Index

08:55 GER Markit Manufacturing PMI

09:00 EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI

09:30 GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI

14:45 USD Markit Manufacturing PMI

15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index

15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid

15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing New Orders

 

UK Company Announcements:

HSBC

Hiscox

 

US Company Announcements:

Global Payments Inc

Ferrari N.V.

 

ETX Capital Webinars:

ETX Capital Trading Strategy Course 1/4: The Trend Flow Strategy 19:00-21:00

 

Tuesday, 4 August

00:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index

00:30 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food

00:30 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy

01:30 AUD Retail Sales

02:30 AUD Imports

02:30 AUD Exports

02:30 AUD Trade Balance

05:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision

05:30 AUD Rate Statement

07:00 GER Imports

07:00 GER Exports

07:00 GER Trade Balance

10:00 EUR Producer Price Index

13:55 USD Redbook Index

14:30 CAD Markit Manufacturing PMI

15:00 USD Factory Orders

21:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index

23:45 NZD Unemployment Rate

23:45 NZD Employment Change

23:45 NZD Participation Rate

23:45 NZD Labour Cost

 

UK Company Announcements:

BP

Diageo

Direct Line

Meggitt

 

US Company Announcements:

Walt Disney Company

Sony Corp Ord

Fidelity National Information Services Inc

Activision Blizzard Inc

 

Wednesday, 5 August

00:00 AUD Commonwealth Bank Services PMI

00:00 AUD Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI

01:30 JPY Jibun Bank Services

02:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI

08:55 GER Markit Services PMI

08:55 GER Markit PMI Composite

09:00 EUR Markit Services PMI

09:00 EUR Markit PMI Composite

09:30 GBP Markit Services PMI

10:00 EUR Retail Sales

13:15 USD ADP Employment Change

13:30 USD Trade Balance

13:30 CAD Imports

13:30 CAD Exports

13:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade

14:45 USD Markit Services PMI

14:45 USD Markit PMI Composite

15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders

15:00 USD Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid

15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index

15:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

 

UK Company Announcements:

Legal & General

Page Group

William Hill

 

US Company Announcements:

CVS Health Corporation

Fiserv Inc

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc

NetEase Inc

Square Inc

Humana Inc

Honda Motor Company

Monster Beverage Corporation

 

ETX Capital Webinars:

The NEW ETX Capital TraderPro masterclass 19:30-20:30

 

 

Thursday, 6 August

00:50 JPY Gross Domestic Product Preliminary

04:00 NZD RBNZ Inflation Expectations

07:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision

07:00 GBP BoE Monetary Policy Report

07:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility

07:00 GBP BoE MPC Vote Hike

07:00 GBP BoE MPC Vote Cut

07:00 GBP BoE MPC Vote Unchanged

07:00 GBP Monetary Policy Summary

07:00 GBP Bank of England Minutes

07:00 GER Industrial Production

07:00 GER Factory Orders

09:30 GBP Markit Construction PMI

12:30 GBP BoE’s Governor Bailey Speech

13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims

13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims

15:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change

 

UK Company Announcements:

Evraz

Hammerson

Mondi

Serco

 

US Company Announcements:

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company

T-Mobile US Inc

Becton, Dickinson & Company

Booking Holdings Inc

Zoetis Inc

VALE S.A.

Illumina Inc

Uber Technologies Inc

 

ETX Capital Webinars:

Corellian Trading Academy: Crisis Control Webinar Series 19:00-21:00

 

Friday, 7 August

00:30 JPY Labour Cash Earnings

00:30 JPY Overall Household Spending

02:30 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement

03:00 CNY Imports

03:00 CNY Exports

03:00 CNY Trade Balance

06:00 JPY Leading Economic Index Preliminary

13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls

13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings

13:30 USD Average Weekly Hours

13:30 USD Labour Force Participation Rate

13:30 USD Unemployment Rate

13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate

13:30 CAD Average Hourly Wages

13:30 CAD Participation Rate

13:30 CAD Net Change in Employment

16:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index

18:00 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

 

UK Company Announcements:

Hargreaves Lansdown

Hikma Pharmaceuticals

Standard Life Aberdeen

 

US Company Announcements:

Berkshire Hathaway Inc

Toyota Motor Corp

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