US Elections, General

Week Ahead: another mixed bag

George Walker, Friday, 20 November 2020

MKT-7029_WA-MixedData_blog

 

The new week begins with traders looking at Manufacturing and Services PMI data due Monday from Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US. Though only indicative preliminary data, it measures the overall condition of sales and employment in the manufacturing and services sectors, and in the current economic climate, these countries need positive numbers and an indication of recovery.

Tuesday morning sees the release of high-impact Gross Domestic Product data out of Germany. Being the largest economy in Europe and a major contributor to the Eurozone, German GDP figures are important to show whether Europe is recovering from the ongoing pandemic.

Big Decisions in Japan

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speaks Tuesday at a virtual event co-hosted by the IMF and the University of Tokyo. The BoJ has adopted negative rates, which currently sit at -0.10%. In recent remarks, the current rates are supportive enough for an economy reeling from the impact of the ongoing pandemic. The difficult decision they have to make now is how long to keep rates negative. This can have an impact on inflation which can, in turn, stall economic recovery as people are less willing to go out and spend if they believe inflation will remain subdued or decline for a sustained period of time. Will Governor Kuroda shed any light on changes in forward guidance?

Will Durable Goods Orders withstand?

There’s a whole raft of data out from the United States on Wednesday, starting with Durable Goods Orders. Durable Goods are goods designed to last for more than three years, often requiring larger investment, and therefore a good indicator of economic strength and disposable income. Next, weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims. The US jobs market is almost front and centre of monetary policy decision-making from the Federal Reserve.

Preliminary US GDP data could also have a strong influence on the USD and indices during trading on Wednesday. All the abovementioned US data is released an hour before the US market open in the afternoon.

Counting down to the FOMC minutes

As the evening rolls in Wednesday, all eyes will be on the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee is the monetary policy decision-making body for the Fed. Any changes in language relating to forward-guidance could cause markets to react accordingly, so traders typically pay close attention.

German Consumer Confidence survey data, as well as Swiss employment numbers are the only medium-impact data releases on Thursday as, barring any surprises, we could be in for a quiet day of trading with Thanksgiving falling on Thursday stateside.

Notable Consumer Price Index data from Japan in the evening could cause volatility for the yen as questions continue to be asked over the long-term impact negative interest rates could have on inflation.

The final trading day of the week also looks set to be a quiet one with Industrial and Consumer Confidence, and Services Sentiment being the only notable data out of Europe.

All times indicated are GMT.


ECONOMIC CALENDAR (all times are GMT)

Monday, 23rd November

08:30 GER Markit Manufacturing PMI Preliminary
08:30 GER Markit Services PMI Preliminary
08:30 GER Markit PMI Composite Preliminary
09:00 EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI Preliminary
09:00 EUR Markit Services PMI Preliminary
09:00 EUR Markit PMI Composite Preliminary
09:30 GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI Preliminary
09:30 GBP Markit Services PMI Preliminary
09:30 GBP BoE’s Haldane Speech
13:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index
14:45 USD Markit Manufacturing PMI Preliminary
14:45 USD Markit Services PMI Preliminary
14:45 USD Markit PMI Composite Preliminary
18:00 USD Fed’s Daly speech
19:00 CAD BoC’s Gravelle Speech

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

N/A

Tuesday, 24th November

00:30 AUD Imports Preliminary
00:30 AUD Exports Preliminary
00:30 AUD Trade Balance Preliminary
02:30 AUD RBA’s Debelle Speech
07:00 GER Gross Domestic Product
09:00 GER IFO – Business Climate
09:00 GER IFO – Current Assessment
09:00 GER IFO – Expectations
11:00 GBP BoE’s Haskel Speech
12:05 JPY BoJ’s Governor Kuroda Speech
13:55 USD Redbook Index
14:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
15:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
15:00 USD Consumer Confidence
17:00 USD Fed’s Williams Speech
20:00 NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report
21:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
22:00 NZD RBNZ Governor Orr Speech

UK Company Announcements:

Compass Group
AO World
Pennon
Pets At Home
Intertek

US Company Announcements:

Medtronic
Vmware
Autodesk
Dell Technologies
Best Buy Co.
HP

Wednesday, 26th November

09:00 EUR EU Financial Stability Review
09:00 CHF ZEW Survey – Expectations
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defence
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation
13:30 USD Nondefense Capital Goods Orders
13:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index Preliminary
13:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Annualised Preliminary
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Personal Income
13:30 USD Personal Spending
15:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
15:00 USD New Home Sales
15:00 USD New Home Sales Change
15:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
15:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
19:00 USD FOMC Minutes
21:45 NZD Imports
21:45 NZD Exports
21:45 NZD Trade Balance

UK Company Announcements:

De La Rue
United Utilities

US Company Announcements:

Deere & Company

Thursday, 27th November – US Thanks Giving Day

05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index
05:00 JPY Coincident Index
07:00 GER Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey
07:30 CHF Employment Level
12:30 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
23:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food & Energy

UK Company Announcements:

Severn Trent

US Company Announcements:

N/A

Friday, 28th November

10:00 EUR Services Sentiment
10:00 EUR Industrial Confidence
10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence
10:00 EUR Business Climate
10:00 EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator
18:00 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

UK Company Announcements:

N/A

US Company Announcements:

N/A

 

 

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