News & Analysis

Brentry: A potential GBPEUR trading advantage, or a suburb of Bristol?

Andrew Saks, Monday, 26 April 2021

A very steady start to the week, which is a good sign especially on a Monday morning at a time during which there are plenty of geopolitical events in Europe, Britain and North America to affect confidence and create volatility.

The British Pound's steady climb against the US Dollar and Euro continued last week, a trend which could hardly be described as market volatility in any form, and took the course of a gentle climb.

Over the weekend, this slowed down, and a very slight tailing off has taken place with GBPUSD now at 1.39 and a slightly larger downward movement for the British Pound against the Euro which is now standing at 1.15.

As with its move against the dollar, the Pound's slight decrease in value against the Euro is hardly anything of great concern, and the Pound's value still remains very high compared to its value against the Euro and US Dollar over the past year.

Indeed, throughout April, the Pound has been at its highest value against all majors since April last year. Perhaps the more analytical among investors and traders can see the business community within the United Kingdom gradually gaining momentum against lockdowns.

Whilst European governments have forced entire nations into even more lockdowns and coercive restrictions, the British public are making their perspectives known en masse, sending a message to the government that any more closure of business and restrictions on social and commercial liberty will be met with a drubbing at the polling booth, and with elections coming up, the powers that be may have to either change their tack or be shown the door.

Thus, if Britain's economy opens up whilst European countries are subject to lockdowns, confidence in the Pound would naturally increase.

Added to that, clamor among European executives within large corporations with a global audience have been talking about establishing offices in the United Kingdom to access British markets, and to make use of the advanced talent base and world-class infrastructure post Brexit.

Thus, London is on the up, and will attract global business, whilst Europe has lockdowns.

These two factors are very much areas to watch, as they are potential contributors to a strong Pound, especially if European companies have to pay their British staff in Pounds, as this would add to the commercial FX settlement volume.

We have seen Brexit. Perhaps we may witness a form of European entry to London in significant numbers. We could call it Brentry... or is that a suburb of Bristol?

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