News & Analysis

GBPUSD flies up again, and Credit Suisse takes the plunge in wild prediction

Andrew Saks, Thursday, 27 May 2021

Credit Suisse, perhaps the last Tier 1 FX interbank dealer that anyone would expect to make wild predictions of huge rises in the value of currency pairs in the forthcoming days given its ill-judged, non-risk managed over exuberance in onboarding the ill-fated Archegos Capital hedge fund which it thought was a dead cert, only to be absolutely decimated when the fund collapsed.

It is, however, Credit Suisse that has stuck its corporate neck out on how it sees the imminent value of the GBPUSD pair, and it is a bold view indeed.

The Pound has been very strong against the US Dollar for a number of weeks, however despite a very significant rise today within the 1.42 range, Credit Suisse is predicting that it may rise to between 1.49 and 1.51.

"GBP/USD maintains its near-term base above 1.4017 and with an existing major base in place from late last year we maintain our core and long-held bullish outlook for a move to our 1.4302/77 first core upside target – the 2018 highs and 38.2% retracement of the 2014/2020 bear trend, but we continue to look for an eventual move to 1.49/1.51" stated the Tier 1 financial institution today, which is still hiding its metaphorical face in the aftermath of expecting a profit yet having to report a huge loss last quarter due to its involvement in Archegos.

Other analysts are taking the view that the retreat in the US dollar is keeping GBPUSD afloat above 1.4100 ahead of the European session today and have observed that the pair opened above the 1.4120 mark but failed to sustain, albeit retreated quickly to touch the intraday low at 1.4092.

The reality is that whilst it is nowhere near Credit Suisse's incredibly bullish prediction and has not been for several years, let alone months, the last period in which such high values for the Pound against the US Dollar having been in 2007.

The sudden rise this morning took the GBPUSD from 1.412 at 7.00am UK time to 1.4182 just twenty minutes later.

Yes, its a small spike, but it is a spike nonetheless.

There is no evidence or other data to form any sort of prediction as to whether Credit Suisse's pie-in-the-sky prediction is likely or if it will result once again in egg appearing on its corporate visage for the second time this year.

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