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Daily Technical Round-up: Dollar weakness sees euro push

Michael Baker, Thursday, 6 June 2019

Technical Analysis


Pivot: 1.2701

Scenario 1: Major trend support still intact, strength may start to push up to 1.2748/278. That was from Tuesday's analysis and yesterday's high was 1.2743. Trend support was the buy of the year as we have bounced over 120 pips from here. Market seems to be retreating back to the weekly pivot at 1.2645. Buyers looking for this market to get above 1.2748/2787. Above here we look for 1.2852/2865 and then the 200-day SMA 1.2949. Major fibs if low is not taken out: 23.6% - 1.2754, 38.2% 1.2875, 50% - 1.2972.

Scenario 2: Looking at the short-term fibs now from Friday lows to yesterday's highs. 50% at 1.2651 sits above the weekly pivot at 1.2645. If this fails to hold then we are looking at the yearly lows once again. Long-term trend support at 1.2561 and then there is 1.2480/34 which is the December 18/January 19 lows. We would be in an area not seen since April 17 if that area gives way, 1.2366 acted as support back then.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing push up to 1.2748/2787. Brexit still weighing on sterling but dollar also weak as Fed foretasted to cut rates. Is this giving buyers another opportunity?



Pivot: 1.1249

Scenario 1: Dollar weakness seeing euro push up to levels not seen since April. 1.3 has been a major support back in August 18 and we have fallen back from here. Looking to hold around 1.1214/07 to keep momentum to the upside alive. If we get back up to yesterday's highs then its 1.1322/31 which held highs in March and April. 200-day SMA at 1.1372.

Scenario 2: Below 1.1214/07 and 50-day SMA we look for 1.1190 where we broke out on Monday. 1.1118/05 are the recent lows. lower wedge line support at 1.1037 if we fall further. Longer-term downside target between 1.0849/25 which traded back in early May 2017.

Chart: Daily chart showing recent attempt to break out to the high. Finely balanced today as we have a ECB meeting. 


Germany 30

Pivot: 12.981

Scenario 1: Not looked back since touching the 38.2% fib. Daily trend channel holding the highs, next touch is around 12,100. 50% at 12,029 has been overcome but it has dropped below. Looking to get above the trend resistance and test the 61.8% at 12,131 and then back up to the May highs between 12,321/459.

Scenario 2: Moved quite aggressively from the 38.2%. If we start to drop below the weekly pivot at 11,830 then we could be on for a retest. Below here is a market gap at 11,506. 50% major fib at 11,348.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing trend resistance and fib levels. 


Wall Street

Pivot: 25,482

Scenario 1: Broken up through daily trend resistance. Approaching 50% fib at 25,660 with the 27/28 May high at 25,716. Any higher from here then it's the 61.8% at 25,910.

Scenario 2: So much strength that any weakness will get the buyers' attention. 25,331/212 has had some price action over the last few days so if we start to push through here then we could be on for further pullbacks. Weekly pivot at 25,102. Be sure to draw a fib from 3 June low to recent high to get fib levels if we do retreat, very short-term but buyers seem to be dominating.

Chart: Daily chart showing break up through trend resistance with the 50% not far off. This level is just below the 27/28 May high.

6 Dow

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