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Daily Technical Round-up: Wall Street waits on FOMC and news from Middle East

Michael Baker, Wednesday, 18 September 2019

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD

Pivot: 1.2473

Scenario 1: 1.2396/75 is your support and currently we are being held up by a 23.61% fib (13 April to 3 Sep) at 1.2530 and a 38.2% of a shorter swing (13 March to 3 Sep) at 1.24990. Looking at previous daily highs between 1.2562/1.2602 and a trend resistance at 1.2630. 50% fib at 1.2668.

Scenario 2: Moves below the weekly pivot at 1.2415 and through support at 1.2396/75 we look at fibs 1.2297 and 1.2233. The 50 day SMA sits in-between here at 1.2277. Multi weekly pivots around 1.2200 which may provide support if we get back down there.

Chart: Cable seeing a lot of strength, a lot of focus on tonight's FOMC. Daily chart showing the current fib levels and possible trend resistance.

18 GBP

EURUSD

Pivot: 1.1045

Scenario 1: Back above the weekly pivot and looking make a move back through the trend resistance. September highs and fib not far higher at 1.1111. A break of the 38.2% could see a sustained move higher, pushing up to the 15 and 25 august highs at 1.1164 and 50% at 1.1169. Upper trend resistance at 1.1206.

Scenario 2: 1.1000 is the short-term support and we may start to trade down here if the weekly pivots 1.1012/37 start to give way. 3 and 12 Sep lows at 1.0926. Long-term trend support has seen small breaks but buyers are quick to jump in around these lows.

Chart: Daily chart showing long-term downwards wedge pattern. All eyes on tonight's FOMC. 

18 EUR

Germany 30

Pivot: 12,367

Scenario 1: Sideways trading as we contemplate where to head after the gap down. Hovering around the pivot. Above 12,425 we may look to close gap and fully take out trend resistance. If we can build solid support above 12,481/54 then it's the longer term trend resistance on the weekly at 12,519 which gets focus. June highs come in at 12,661 and a untouched 78.6% fib comes in at 12,884.

Scenario 2: Short-term support at 12,326/00. If this gives way then we look for the 23.6% at 12,208 and multi daily low at 12,180. Small break out zone at 12,082.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing unfilled gap and fib levels.

18 DAX

Wall Street

Pivot: 27,072

Scenario 1: Not much change from yesterday as we await FOMC decision and news from Middle East tensions. Not too far off all-time highs. Gapped down since close on Friday, 27,211 is where bulls will want this to take out July highs.

Scenario 2: Below 27,000 we may get a push back down into the early September trading range. This area found support around 26,710. 26,549 is a previous resistance turned support with a 38.2% fib at 26,458. 26,366 is a resistance which was notable since August before seeing a breakthrough in early September.

Chart: Quiet session yesterday, awaiting tonight's decision. Four-hour chart showing gap and fib retracement levels.

18 Dow

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