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Daily Technical Round-up: Wall Street's a beast

Michael Baker, Thursday, 15 August 2019

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD

Pivot: 1.2068

Scenario 1: 1.2090/2106 the short-term resistance and weekly pivot still capping moves higher this week. Likely to push on to the trend channel 1.2119. 1.2211/51 is a daily resistance, we could look to unwind that quick move we saw back in July and trade up to the break down area at 1.2377/96.

Scenario 2: After making new yearly lows at the start of the week we have traded sideways and seen short-term support between 1.2051/1.2042. Could again approach those lows if we push through here, if 1.2 gives way then it's the 2017 lows at 1.1987 and 2016 lows at 1.1777.

Chart: Daily chart showing how close we are to the lows back from 2016/2017. Fib drawn but we need a bit of a pullback before we get excited on possible retracement zones.

15 GBP

EUR/USD

Pivot: 1.1154

Scenario 1: Seen a small pullback after trading within a condensed zone since the 5 August strength. Market is hovering around the 50% fib at 1.1138, any lower we have previous history with 1.1116/01. Yearly lows are at 1.1027 with a long term sloping trend support coming in at 1.0971.

Scenario 2: 1.1162/79 gave way recently, possible we push back above here and get above recent daily highs and 50-day SMA at 1.1233. 61.8% fib at 1.1266, 5 - 22 July highs fall between 1.1282/88 and this area sits before the 200-day SMA at 1.1291.

Chart: Daily chart showing pushes away from the 50-day SMA. Market been under pressure with no strong technical signs.

15 EUR

Germany 30

Pivot: 11,549

Scenario 1: 38.2% fib has done the job here after seeing a brief pullback from the 30 July - 5 August sell off. We didn't quite get down to the lows at 11,337. If we start to push lower we look at the 25 March low at 11,269. 61.8% at 11,155 and then 11,000 has seen some noticeable congestion.

Scenario 2: Let's look for a move above the weekly pivot at 11,659 to start thinking about another attack at the 38.2% fib. May look to unwind recent sell off if we get back above here. 50% fib at 12,000 and 61.8% fib comes in around the area we found initial support on the 30 July sell off.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing the 38.2% fib acting as resistance, recent move south not enough to overcome the 5 August low. 

15 DAX

Wall Street

Pivot: 25,733

Scenario 1: Pullback from August 5 lows saw prices overcome the 50% fib but resistance prevented further moves past 26,241/432. We have again come crashing down as volatility takes hold. Three daily lows between 25,436/368, if this area gives way then we look at the 38.2% fib at 25,202. This has been overcome recently but it was a very quick breakthrough before returning. August lows come in at at 25,073 which is around the big 25,000 psychological area. Any further then we start to focus on the June low at 24,603 which is in front of the big 50% at 24,516.

Scenario 2: Buyers will want this to not start to head south any further then the recent lows. 26,432/241 is the the target resistance area, we get though here then that will take a bit of pressure off the downside. 61.8% at 26,517.

Chart: Inverted yields for the short-term two-year bill and longer-term 10-year bond have spooked the markets. Four-hour chart showing the flip-flopping activity. Wall Street being a beast to trade, all hands on deck as these moves are set to continue!

15 Dow

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