Scenario 1: Sterling enjoying a resilience lately. Market has traded up back through the 27 July breakdown area and this area now appears to be acting as support. Not much of a retracement seen since the 3 September turnaround. Recent highs are a 38.2% fib, above 1.2529 there is daily resistance between 1.2562/1.2602. Trend resistance at 1.2630 and 50% at 1.2668.
Scenario 2: Below 1.2396/75 we look at fibs at 1.2297 and 1.2233. The 50 day SMA sits in-between here at 1.2277. Multi weekly pivots around 1.2200 which may provide support if we get back down there.
Chart: Four-hour chart shows the recapture of the 28 July breakdown and fib areas which may gather support.
Scenario 1: 38.2% fib from 24 July to 3 Sep held last weeks volatile move higher at 1.1112. A long-term trend resistance was slightly broke but quickly moved back below. Trading held around previous weekly pivots at 1.1012/37, if we can push back above here then it may be another move on 13 Sep high. A break of the 38.2% could see a sustained move higher, pushing up to the 15 and 25 august highs at 1.1164.
Scenario 2: Short-term 1.100 seems to be building as an area of support, we did have a blip through over ECB but have since recovered. If we fail to hold then it's the 3 and 12 Sep lows at 1.0926. Long-term trend support has seen small breaks but buyers are quick to jump in around these lows.
Chart: Four-hour chart shows 38.2% fib resistance. Long-term resistance came under pressure but not quite enough momentum.
Scenario 1: Trend resistance on the highs holds the September push. Market has gapped down, 12,483 is where the cash closed on Friday. above 12,425 we may look to close gap and fully take out trend resistance. If we can build solid support above 12,481/54 then its the longer term trend resistance on the weekly at 12,519 which gets focus. June highs come in at 12,661 and a untouched 78.6% fib comes in at 12,884.
Scenario 2: Short-term support at 12,326/00. If this gives way then we look for the 23.6% at 12,208 and multi daily low at 12,180. Small break out zone at 12,082.
Chart: Weekly chart showing the last remaining fib and trend support which has seen a close test.
Scenario 1: Not too far off all-time highs. Gapped down since close on Friday, 27,211 is where bulls will want this to take out July highs. FOMC tomorrow evening which may give this an extra boost if we get a larger then expected cut.
Scenario 2: Below 27,000 we may get a push back down into the early September trading range. This area found support around 26,710. 26,549 is a previous resistance turned support with a 38.2% fib at 26,458. 26,366 is a resistance which was notable since August before seeing a breakthrough in early September.
Chart: Four-hour chart showing how close we come to testing all time highs. Gap down a sign of possible weakness, stay tuned to developments in the middle east and tomorrow's FOMC.