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Daily Technical Round-up: Pound at yearly low

Michael Baker, Wednesday, 17 July 2019

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD

Pivot: 1.2441

Scenario 1: Yearly low at 1.2434, lower line of trend channel not far past here at 1.2393. Yesterday's analysis and the low has caught the lower line of the trend channel, but can it hold? Dollar still applying the pressure, it's not looking good at all. If we continue to move south and break out then we look for 1.2367/00, which saw quite a bit of action back in 2017.

Scenario 2: 1.2474/34 was a strong support that had held the lows on multiple occasion since Dec last year. Yesterday's session has plummeted through here, will this now act as resistance? Longs will hope that this is just a period of over-selling and trading can get back above here and push for the weekly pivot. From there we can target last week's pivot and high between 1.2572/79.

Chart: Market trading to the lower end of a daily trend channel. Broken through major support and trading levels not seen since April 2017.

17 GBP

EUR/USD

Pivot: 1.1225

Scenario 1: July lows under pressure and looking like we may test June lows at 1.1181/60. Yearly lows come in at 1.1116/1.1107. Dollar pilling on the pressure on global currencies.
Scenario 2: 50-day SMA didn't hold yesterday and we came tumbling down. Buyers want this to get past 1.284/86. A beat here then we look for 50% fib at 1.1303 and then 1.1349 is where we broke down on the 1 July. 200-day SMA at 1.1321 and then a potential trend resistance at 1.1391.

Chart: Skewed to the downside, all eyes on 1.1181/60 support.

17 EUR

Germany 30

Pivot: 12,417

Scenario 1: Germany 30 is static at the moment, hugging the weekly pivot and not making grain on the push up we saw early July. If we start to push to the downside then we look for 12,363/353 and then July lows at 12,291. 38.2% at 12,255 sits a little lower and the 50% is at 12,130 which sits in-between the large trading range on the 18 June.

Scenario 2: Bulls looking for this to beat 12,450/81. Pushing above a short-term trend channel and holding so may be on for a move higher. 61.8% fib at 12,520 and previous weekly fib at 12,559. Recent highs come in at 12,661.

Chart: Four-hour chart, pushing on the weekly highs but has struggled. Looking to push above 12,481/504 to get the momentum back.

17 DAX

Wall Street

Pivot: 27,338

Scenario 1: Out-of-hours market seeing pushes higher but when the cash opens it's staying fairly stagnant. Is it a breather or the market stalling? The way it's pushed up through 27,011 and not looked back suggests the market is incredibly strong.

Scenario 2: If we drop below 27,051/011 we could see pushes for the 9 July low at 26,656 and then support which has been holding since the 18 June between 26,534/406. Targets to the downside are hard to identify because its so strong, but what goes up usually comes tumbling down (at some point).

Chart: Four-hour chart not showing too much difference from yesterday, market tracking the highs and no signs of weakness.

17 Dow

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