General

Daily Technical Round-up: No stopping the Dow

Michael Baker, Tuesday, 16 July 2019

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD

Pivot: 1.2535

Scenario 1: No change in cable, we still look weak but have bounced up from the yearly lows. Currently sitting below the weekly pivot and early trading showing signs of weakness. Yearly low at 1.2434, lower line of trend channel not far past here at 1.2393. 1.2367/00 is the next area which saw quite a bit of action back in 2017.

Scenario 2: Bulls will want this to hold steady above the weekly pivot at 1.2532, from here we can target last weeks pivot and high between 1.2572/79. Above 1.2592 we look for 1.2641/60, the 50-day SMA is only slightly higher at 1.2678. A level to watch is 1.2748/.2814 which has been resistance since the 15 May.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing the immediate resistance areas. Looking for some sign of strength otherwise the longs that have been building up at these levels may be in for a tough time. 

16 GBP

EUR/USD

Pivot: 1.2656

Scenario 1: Looks like we're starting to hold the 50-day SMA but that can change quickly. The 9 July low bounced before the 16 June low, we are holding a short-term support at 1.1238, moves higher have not managed to beat 1.284/86. A beat here then we look for 50% fib at 1.1303 and then 1.1349 is where we broke down on the 1 July.
200-day SMA at 1.1323 and then a potential trend resistance at 1.1391.

Scenario 2: 1.1178/57 is your main support but we are pushing away from here. If we find ourselves back down here and it breaks then its April/May lows at 1.1116/1.1107.
Chart: On the four-hour chart we can see the market bounce up to 38.2%, potential trend resistance if we start to climb.

16 EUR

Germany 30

Pivot: 12,738

Scenario 1: Touched the lower line of the trend zone and bounced. Resistance at the moment is within the gap area which we saw from the 28 June. Market gaps have filled but struggling to continue the drive up. 12,406 is the weekly pivot with activity stuck close by. Last week lows at 12,291 may come under threat if we push lower, the 38.2% at 12,555 sits a little lower. There is a 50% at 12,130 which sits in-between the large trading range on the 18 June.

Scenario 2: Bulls looking for this to beat 12,450/81. From here we can target a 61.8% fib at 12,520 and previous weekly fib at 12,559. Recent highs come in at 12,661.

Chart: Short term chart showing small trend channel. Market not managing to drive higher like we are seeing in the US markets. 

16 DAX

Wall Street

Pivot: 27,338

Scenario 1: Up, up and away! There is no stopping this both fundamentally and technically. A potential long term channel comes in at 28,810 but that's someway away.

Scenario 2: If we drop below 27,051/011 we could see pushes for the 9 July low at 26,656 and then support which has been holding since the 18 June between 26,534/406. Targets to the downside are hard to identify because its so strong, but what goes up usually comes tumbling down (at some point).

Chart: Four-hour chart showing new continuous printing of new highs. Support is evident but we are moving further and further away.

16 Dow

Share article