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Daily Technical Round-up: New high blue skies for Wall Street

Michael Baker, Thursday, 4 July 2019

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD

Pivot: 1.2574

Scenario 1: Push down a little lower yesterday, 1.2558 forming a very shot-term support, can this hold? If not then its the yearly lows at 1.2506. Any further then its the 12 Dec low at 1.2477 and then 3 Jan low at 1.2434. 1.2367/1.2300 saw quite a bit of action back in 2017.

Scenario 2: Short-term push above 1.2591/2600 could start given us a platform to build for 1.2748/.2814. Before then there may be a short resistance at 1.2641/60. Any low we make, be sure to get your fib on if we start to turnaround.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing area of resistance which has held this market since 20 May. 



EUR/USD

Pivot: 1.1286

Scenario 1: Yesterdays action was sideways. 50% fib at 1.1260 remains untouched with the 61.8% at 1.1224. 50-day SMA at 1.1235, daily support between 1.1201/1181.

Scenario 2: Analysis and views remain the same. Reading a few reports that Trump's attack on the euro is driving it up, not seeing this in the charts. Let's stay on guard for possible strength to emerge in these indecisive markets. Above 1.1347 its possible we resume the move for the major 23.6% (Feb 2018 to 2019 low) at 1.1451 which sits on the 20 March high. Above here then its the 1.15 level which has seen some strong pullbacks when tested.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing the sideways movement, we broke out of the trend channel for a short time but back in. Traders looking for another break?



Germany 30

Pivot: 12,609

Scenario 1: Strength after strength. Trading areas not seen since August 2018. 12,7778 is the top of a trend channel and 12,869/952 are now on the radar. Some way off all time highs, market driven by US markets.

Scenario 2: Rapid buying between 12,590/62, possible we may give this back if we get back down. 12,501/476 holding the weeks trading and the gap from last week is at 12,403. Trading is some way above the weekly pivot at 12,329.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing trend channel. Markets don't like gaps so could see a pullback at some point before the uptrend continues?


 

Wall Street

Pivot: 26,902

Scenario 1: New highs blue skies! Market has been dominant, cooling global trade tensions and signs the FED will ease are the main catalysts. The flag break and retest were good signs of strong moves. No previous levels to reference, but without signs of technical or fundamental weakness, what will stop further moves north?

Scenario 2: Wall Street known to give back gains very quickly, spotting when its about to happen and getting on the move is another thing. Possible we will see a push back below 26,905/804, if we do then there is a four-hour trend support, latest support showing around 26,741. Weekly pivot holding lows since Monday at 26,629. Gap left from last Friday at 26,585. 26,408 is a support which has held since 18 June.

Chart: Four-hour chart, market continuing to drive up, shows trend support and the market gap from Friday. 



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