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Daily Technical Round-up: GBP/USD still waiting on next Brexit steps

Michael Baker, Tuesday, 4 June 2019

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD

Pivot: 1.26495

Scenario 1: Major trend support still intact, strength may start to push up to 1.2748/2787. Above here we look for 1.2852/2865 and then the 200-day SMA 1.2950. Major fibs if low is not taken out: 23.6% - 1.2754, 38.2% 1.2875, 50% - 1.2972.

Scenario 2: Long-term trend support at 1.2558, if we fail here then possible areas of support it may target are 1.2480/34 which is the December 18/January 19 lows. We would be in an area not seen since April 17 is that area gives way, 1.2366 acted as support back then.

Chart: Four-hour chart with fibs and possible first bullish target. No update on Brexit talks, market still waiting on the next steps.

4 GBP


EUR/USD

Pivot: 1.1221

Scenario 1: We are seeing the euro go bid this morning, breaking through the first part of a trend resistance zone. Price above the 50-day SMA which has not been the case since early April. 1.1264 has seen a small push through but bulls will want a drive up above 1.1322/31 for good measure. 200-day SMA at 1.1376.

Scenario 2: 1.1261/40 is very near support to where we are trading, buyers will want to build on the latest strength. 1.1190 is where we broke out yesterday afternoon and have not looked back, we may be on for another go at the lows at 1.1118/05. lower wedge line support at 1.1041 if we fall further. Longer-term downside target between 1.0849/25 which traded back in early May 2017.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing the blast off yesterday and the breakthrough the multi daily high at 1.1264. April highs now in sight. 

4 EUR


Germany 30

Pivot: 11,725

Scenario 1: Market found support at the 38.2% at 11,611.1 and moved up to a previous broken multi daily low at 11,800/37 where we hold below. This area contains the weekly pivot 11,830 and 23.6% at 11,801. If we continue to bounce then its the 30/31 May highs that coincide with the 38.2% fib at 11,926. Trend resistance comes in at 12,000.

Scenario 2: 38.2% fib from 26 Dec 2018 to 3 May 2019 has done the job, if this fails then we look for the market gap at 11,506. 50% major fib at 11,348.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing recent bounce fib levels coming into play with weekly pivot not far off.

4 DAX



Wall Street

Pivot: 24,815

Scenario 1: Wall Street started off rather weak yesterday but has pulled back a little way. 38.2% major fib did not hold but we are back above and currently trading within 24,839/990 zone. Psychological level at 25,000 and then the weekly pivot at 25,102. If we get through 25,214/324 resistance then we can look for last week's pivot at 25,613.

Scenario 2: 24,765/682 saw buyers. Yesterday's low came close to the 30 Jan low at 24,580. Below here at 24,414/226 has held sixdaily lows in January.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing fib retracements and the 25,214/324 potential resistance zone.

4 Dow

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