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Daily Technical Round-up: EUR/USD looking weak

Michael Baker, Monday, 19 August 2019

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD

Pivot: 1.2132

Scenario 1: Pushed north of the daily trend channel, first signs of a potential let-up in weakness? There are nine daily resistances between 1.2172/2253. Looking to break through here and start to unwind July's quick sell-off up to the break down area 1.2377/96.

Scenario 2: Weekly pivot at 1.2111 which sits above 1.2107/2076, this area has a lot of previous congestion, below here is 1.2051/42. Yearly low at 1.2016 with 2017 low at 1.1987.

Chart: Daily chart showing the break out to the upside. Now attacking previous session highs. 

19 GBP

EUR/USD

Pivot: 1.1089

Scenario 1: Looking a little weak lately, tier one data coming out more towards the lower end and general sentiment is dampening. Prices have moved south of a short-term trend support on the four-hour and found support in the 1.1078/1067 congestion area. Yearly lows at 1.1027 with the long-term sloping trend support coming in at 1.0961.

Scenario 2: All looking very weak, but if we can get above the weekly pivot at 1.1185 then we can aim for the 50% daily high resistance zone between 1.1220/50. 61.8% fib at 1.1266, 5 - 22 July highs fall between 1.1282/88 and this area sits before the 200-day SMA at 1.1288.

Chart: Very long-term falling wedge pattern which does signify a possible reversal, when that happens is not too clear. Data from the eurozone is not so positive. 

19 EUR

Germany 30

Pivot: 11,523

Scenario 1: March 25 support was the place last week to get long. Seen a strong session in the Asian markets and the cash has started on the front foot. 11,800/861 is a recent resistance and 38.2% fib. Higher pushes we look at the 50% at 11,966. Above 12,000 then we could on to push back for the July highs.

Scenario 2: We saw a break of the long-term trend support but have seen quick buying to push it back above. 11,355/262 likely to attract further support if we get down here, moves lower may gather momentum if we push through. 61.8% fib retracement at 11,165.

Chart: Daily chart showing the break but extremely quick buying reaction. 11,355/262 is your main support. 

19 DAX

Wall Street

Pivot: 25,807

Scenario 1: Long-term trend support seems valid as the third touch last week confirms the line. Global equities have seen a bounce after recent sell off. First target is 26,403/436 and then the 61.8% at 26,516.

Scenario 2: 25,960/856 are previous weekly pivots congested in the same zone, we may see support here if we pull away from recent highs. 25,768/660 is short term area of lows and highs on the four-hour with the longer-term daily support coming in at 25,277.

Chart: Daily chart showing the long-term trend support and the bounce possibly heading towards 26,403/436.

19 Dow

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