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Daily Technical Round-up: Equities prone to extreme moves

Michael Baker, Tuesday, 13 August 2019

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD

Pivot: 1.2066

Scenario 1: New yearly lows at the start of the trading week, last week's GDP numbers and the ongoing Brexit debacle not painting a pretty picture. 1.2 holding up the lows, the 2017 low is at 1.1987 and the 2016 lows at 1.1777.

Scenario 2: Cable has been in a downtrend for a long time with no signs of a turnaround. It's possible we may get a short sharp bounce for technical reasons or due to positive Brexit news, traders will look to get long after this. 1.2090/2106 is a short term resistance and weekly pivot, above here then look for a move on the downwards moving trend channel at 1.2146. 1.2211/51 is a daily resistance, we could look to unwind that quick move we saw back in July and trade up to the break down area at 1.2377/96.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing the continuing break down and formation of short term trend channel. 

13 GBP

EUR/USD

Pivot: 1.1202

Scenario 1: 1.1179/62 has seen multiple daily lows since 5 August. Sideways trend pattern. Looking to push above the 50-day SMA at 1.1238, look out for the 61.8% fib at 1.1266. 5-22 July highs fall between 1.1282/88 and this area sits before the 200-day SMA at 1.1294. We will start to think about the 1.1393/.1449 area which has been holding since Feb if we get any higher.

Scenario 2: Sellers will want this to push below 1.1179/62 and 1.1147. 50% fib at 1.1138. We have previous history with 1.1116/01, yearly lows are at 1.1027 with a long term sloping trend support coming in at 1.0971.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing trend resistance, side ways trading and previous daily highs which sit above the 61.8% fib.

13 EUR

Germany 30

Pivot: 11,699

Scenario 1: Again it seems we are exploring within that major 11,592/879 zone. Over the years we have seen holds above and resistance. Looking for a push back below 11,592 and then push south to retest 25 March low. 61.8% at 11,155 and then 11,000 has seen some noticeable congestion.

Scenario 2: 38.2% fib at 11,844 which is holding the recent daily highs. May look to unwind recent sell off if we get back above here. 50% fib at 12,000 and 61.8% fib comes in around the area we found initial support on the 30 July sell off.

Chart: Daily chart showing trend resistance on the highs and recent sell off stopped short of the 25 March low.

13 DAX

 

Wall Street

Pivot: 26,030

Scenario 1: Seen weakness return, recent pull back reached 26,417 but sell-off back below the weekly pivot. Sellers looking to hold this below 26,000 and push on further and take out 25,628 to then target August lows at 25,073 which is just above 25,000.

Scenario 2: Recent highs reached 26,419 with the 61.8% not too much further at 26,521. Support and resistance congestion zone between 26,646/717.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing recent drop from 26,419. Equities are under pressure and prone to extreme moves. Are we set to revisit August and then June lows?

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