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Daily Technical Round-up: Dow close to highs... again

Michael Baker, Thursday, 11 July 2019

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD

Pivot: 1.2490

Scenario 1: Yearly lows remain unchanged at 1.2434. Looks like a developing trend channel, the lower line test is not far away so this could be acting as further support. Dollar seems to be retreating so we may start pushing for the weekly pivot at 1.2572. Short-term resistance at 1.2533/41 which is capping highs now, possible we continue to push for 1.2591/2600 and 1.2641/60. We would then start to feel a little optimistic for a move for 1.2748/.2814.

Scenario 2: Below yearly lows and the trend channel we look for 1.2367/00 which saw quite a bit of action back in 2017. We would be desperately low down here with buyers defending any further weakness.

Chart: Daily showing trend channel. Lower line falls inline with yearly lows. Could we be in for a bounce now?

11 GBP

EUR/USD

Pivot: 1.1239

Scenario 1: Small turnaround yesterday as we climb are way above the 50 day-SMA. Trying to build above 1.1267 as I write. 1.1349 is where we broke down on the 1 July, this is above 200-day SMA at 1.1326. Next target is the June highs and long-term trend resistance between 1.1386/1412.

Scenario 2: 1.1178/57 is your main support but we are pushing away from here. If we find ourselves back down here and it breaks then its April/May lows at 1.1116/1.1107.

Chart: Pullback in its possible early stages. Above 50-day SMA, daily chart showing possible push for 200-day SMA and then maybe June highs. 

11 EUR

Germany 30

Pivot: 12,405

Scenario 1: Bouncing in and out of the broken trend zone. 12,387/298 is where this sits, may look to retrace gains from 25 June if we start to break down. Before then we have the 38.2% at 12,256. There is a 50% at 12,130 which sits in between the large trading range on the 18 June.

Scenario 2: 12,481/504 is the target for bulls which has held moves high since the breakdown on the 8/9 June. Weekly pivot at 12,559, we would be back in the trend channel if we traded back up here.

Chart: The four-hour chart shows the recent weakness but its not nothing of note. Still possible we continue the longer-term trend up. 12,481/504 is a short-term resistance.

11 DAX

Wall Street

Pivot: 26,845

Scenario 1: So close to the highs again yesterday before we saw a quick pullback. Nothing compared to what we have seen in the past when this starts to tank so skew is still to the upside and setting new records. 27,000 is a big psychological level, could we be looking at 30,000 in the much longer-term?

Scenario 2: Flip flopping weekly pivot at 26,842, below we look to attack 26,656/613 which has been holding since last week. Market gap still valid at 26,585 from 28 June. 26,408 is a support which has held since 18 June.

Chart: 30-minute Chart showing the bouncing between 26,656/613 to all time new highs. If the support come under pressure may get some short-term reactions. 

11 Dow

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