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Daily Technical Round-up: Dollar still dominating

Michael Baker, Monday, 20 May 2019

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD

Pivot: 1.2743

Scenario 1: 1.2720/2657 touch this morning as 'no-deal' chatter picks up steam. Heavy pressure on sterling since the 6 May, seen a decline as much as 3.5%. Support below here seen between 1.2615/2573 followed by the 2018 yearly lows at 1.2475/1.2430.

Scenario 2: On alert for any small signs of a turnaround, we have been on a one way selling street for sometime now. Starting with the daily pivot, a move above 1.2743 we can target 1.2773/86 then 1.2864/2924 and 1.2960/.3008. Hard to see any turnaround at the moment due to the increasing uncertainty.

Chart: Daily chart showing cables recent weakness and drop.

20 GBP


EUR/USD

Pivot: 1.1165

Scenario 1: Dollar dominating, 1.1184/62 given way leaving the yearly lows at 1.1133/.1110 open to a potential attack. Trend support at 1.1048.

Scenario 2: 1.2118 is a weekly pivot which also held the highs last week. If we start to see some relief from the dollar pressure, we could start to push back up here. 1.1243/1.1265 offers the 50-day SMA and daily resistance since 22 April.

Chart: Daily chart showing no let up here, been under pressure and possible we could target yearly lows. Look for a move above 50-day SMA to take the pressure off. 

20 EUR


Germany 30

Pivot: 12,217

Scenario 1: Last week was indecisive, we pretty much closed where we closed the previous week. Equities have been strong but global pressures are building. We have seen big candle tails on the last few weeks to show buying when the markets have dropped. Daily trend support comes in at 11,930 with support at 11,876/688 holding since start of April.

Scenario 2: Daily Trend channel since December. Upside target is 12,650. Will need to push through May and Sep 18 highs at 12,461.

Chart: Daily showing the trend channel which has consumed trading since late last year. 

20 DAX


Wall Street

Pivot: 25,783

Scenario 1: Market fell away last week after filling the gap left from 10 May cash close. Level coincided with 50% fib and previous broken trend support. 25,970/26,000 looks like the level to beat, there are previous daily highs above followed by a breakdown area at 26,100.

Scenario 2: 25,725/656 looks like an area of interest which held the move up before a breakout which hasn't seen a test since. Trend support on the four-hour chart since January coming between 25,370/280.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing the trend support and the recent bounce up to the 50% fib. 

20 Dow

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