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Daily Technical Round-up: Diplomat spat pressures cable

Michael Baker, Wednesday, 10 July 2019

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD

Pivot: 1.2475

Scenario 1: No love for sterling. A diplomatic spat between the US and UK adding more pressure to the downside. Yesterday's low stopping within touching distance of the yearly low at 1.2434. Any lower then it's 1.2367/1.2300 which saw quite a bit of action back in 2017.

Scenario 2: Saw a reaction through 1.25 yesterday, may get some resistance if we push back up here. Short term resistance at 1.2533, push above then its 1.2591/2600 and 1.2641/60. We would then start to feel a little optimistic for a move for 1.2748/.2814.

Chart: Daily chart showing push to yearly lows. 

10 GBP

EUR/USD

Pivot: 1.1207

Scenario 1: Still below 50-day and 200-day SMA's. 1.1178/57 which has held Junes trading is also holding up current trading. If we push lower then its April/May lows at 1.1116/1.1107.
Scenario 2: Bulls looking to get this back above 1.1267. 1.1349 is where we broke down on the 1st July, this is above 200-day SMA at 1.1327. Next target is the June highs and long-term trend resistance between 1.1392/1421.
Chart: Are we looking at a possible pullback? Be on guard if we fall below 1.1178 and notice what kind of reaction there is. Daily chart showing long-term reaction. 

10 EUR

Germany 30

Pivot: 12,440

Scenario 1: Fallen out of the four-hour trend channel, we can now start to look at possible retracement levels. Market gap is now closed from the 28th June. We are chopping about in an area of low action, fib from 3rd June low to 3rd July high shows a 38.2% at 12,256 and 50% at 12,130. Currently testing the long-term broken trend resistance.

Scenario 2: 12,481/504 was a support from the 1st June, this has given way and may provide resistance if we retest. Weekly pivot at 12,559, if we are up here then it would be a false break out of the trend channel. July highs at 12,661 are also the yearly highs.

Chart: Sellers land a blow by pushing it out of the trend channel, will this entice buying? We are trading within a sort of no mans land where there has been low volume over the past months, could be pivotal in where we head next. 

10 DAX


Wall Street

Pivot: 26,751

Scenario 1: Holding 26,656/613 which was a support and pivot from last week, this was also the yearly high from back in April 2019. Looking to recapture the weekly pivot at 26,842 and then push on to 27,000 level which is the current all-time high.

Scenario 2: Market gap still valid at 26,585 even though other major indices are closing theirs. 26,656/613 offering support since last week, we break here then its possible we go on to trade the gap left from 28 June. 26,408 is a support which has held since 18 June.

Chart: Daily chart showing activity holding above the April highs, but not by much. Have we seen the new all-time high for a while? May see it drop to much stronger support levels before another push. 

10 Dow

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