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Daily Technical Round-up: DAX and Dow looking to recover

Ben Weiss, Monday, 3 June 2019

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD

Pivot: 1.2610

Scenario 1: Market may be open to a further push down, we are within touching distance of a long-term trend support (1.2551). Fridays low was 1.2559, stopping in front of the trend support. There has been a small uptick from here as we see a bit of respite from the selling. If the trend support fails to hold, we look at 1.2480/34 which is the December 18/January 19 lows. We would be in an area not seen since April 17 is that area gives way, 1.2366 acted as support back then.

Scenario 2: 1.2748/87 has been holding moves higher since we broke down on the 17. Above here we can start to target 1.2852/2865 and then the 200-day SMA at 1.2951. Moves to the upside seem very unlikely without a Brexit compromise.

Chart: Daily chart showing the trend support which has taken the pressure off the downside. Market still under pressure as no-deal prospects continue to rise.

3 GBP


EUR/USD

Pivot: 1.1157

Scenario 1: Prices have bounced up from 1.1105/.1118. looking to push back above 1.1196/1258. 50-day SMA at 1.1209 which has been effective in resisting moves higher since April. 1.1264 has resisted six daily highs. 1.1322/31 resisted highs between 25 March and 17 April.

Scenario 2: 1.1118/05 has held four daily lows since 26 April. Looking at lower wedge line support at 1.1041 if we fall further. Longer-term downside target between 1.0849/25 which traded back in early May 2017.

Chart: Four-hour chart shows recent pushes on yearly low and move up towards trend and daily resistance.

3 USD


Germany 30

Pivot: 11,764

Scenario 1: Through the 11,688 support and trading around the 38.2% at 11,613. Equities continue to trade under pressure, there is a gap at 11,506 left back from the 29 March that may attract attention. 50% at 11,348.

Scenario 2: Strong down week for the Germany 30, looking to get back above 11,808/37 for a bit of respite. 23 May low turned into a resistance for the 30 May high at 11,926. Trend resistance comes in at 12,000.

Chart: Daily chart showing the market trade down to the 38.2%.

3 DAX


Wall Street

Pivot: 24,924

Scenario 1: Out-of-hours trading shows a further drop with a possible gap forming from Friday’s cash close. We seemed to have skipped the 38.2%, let’s see if we open above here at 2:30 pm. If we continue to drop, 24,414/226 comes into focus has held six daily lows in January. This level sits above the 50% at 24,155.

Scenario 2: 24,810 is the cash close on Friday, if we get past here then we can look for the daily pivot at 24,924. Psychological level at 25,000 and then the weekly pivot at 25,102. If we get through 25,187/373 resistance, then we can look for last week’s pivot at 25,613.

Chart: Daily chart showing the overnight gap down and the next possible area of support between 24,414/226.

3 Dow

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