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Daily Technical Round-up: Coronavirus fears to push DAX further down?

Michael Baker, Thursday, 13 February 2020

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD

Pivot: 1.2962

Scenario 1: Pushed up to the weekly pivot but no follow through when it pushed above. Still we look at this small pullback with caution, if we see 1.2898/62 fail then we have daily supports between 1.2826/.2768. Further daily lows are between 1.2826/.2768 followed by the 50% fib at 1.2737.

Scenario 2: Buyers looking to clear the weekly pivot and 1.3. From here it's the 50-day SMA and recent daily high at 1.3071. 1.3100 has seen a lot of price action since we broke up on the general election. daily highs congested between 1.3136/213.

Chart: Daily chart showing recent push higher but didn't make any ground on 1.3.

13 GBP

 

EURUSD

Pivot: 1.0883

Scenario 1: Last year's low taking out and market continues to hover around the lows. Big 76.8% fib comes in at 1.0815. Below here we start to enter territory that has not traded since 2016.

Scenario 2: Bulls increasingly under pressure, the aim is to clear 1.0924/41 and then get up to 1.0980/.1001 which contains the weekly pivot. From here it's the 50-day SMA and 31-Jan/1-Feb high at 1.1080/95. 200-day SMA at 1.1117.

Chart: Weekly chart pushing down to 78.6% fib. Notice the gap in the market left from April 2017, is this going to be a well supported area?

13 EUR

Germany 30

Pivot: 13,716

Scenario 1: Made an attempt at the upper trend channel line, it pushed through but has retreated back below, possibly a false break? Coronavirus fears have escalated over night so could that add further weight to a possible down move? If we see a pullback then there is support at 13,600 followed by 13,397/359. Weekly pivot, 38.2% fib and 50-day SMA between all at 13,340. 50% fib at 13,243 and 61.8% fib at 13,159. Major support between 12,949/12,884.

Scenario 2: If we continue the drive higher then the market will be looking to make a bigger impact on the upper trend line at 13,732. Prices will be at all-time highs so no past reference levels.

Chart: Daily chart showing breach of the upper trend channel line. We have pulled back a little so false break alarms are going off. 

13 DAX

Wall Street

Pivot: 29,454

Scenario 1: Wall street again pushes higher but virus developments overnight weighing on early out of hours trading. Trend support from 31-Jan under pressure, break comes in around 29,369. 29,257 is a short-term support but the main one is around the weekly pivot at 28,933. If this comes under pressure again then it's the 50% at 28,864 followed by multiple daily lows at 28,765. 61.8% at 28,698.

Scenario 2: 4 daily highs between 29530/67. Not making big gains on each attempt. 30,000 figure is the obvious target if we start to build momentum.

Chart: Four-hour chart shows the trend support and potential fib levels if we start to fall away. Highs since 6 Feb have not found enormous ground but no clear signals of impending down move.

13 Dow

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