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Daily Technical Round-up: Concrete moves for GBP/USD unlikely

Michael Baker, Thursday, 8 August 2019

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD

Pivot: 1.2152

Scenario 1: Sideways movement since we saw that strong selling between 26 and 30 July. Waiting for further updates on Brexit. Parliament on recess until early September so any concrete moves are unlikely. This week's trading held by the weekly pivot. In a short term trend channel, moves above 1.2208 we look for recent highs at 1.2237/50. Traders may look to unwind the rapid selling we saw, and push up to the breakdown area at 1.2377/84. This is also the 23.6% fib from 13 March to 1 August.

Scenario 2: Any pushes lower the scenario remains the same, we will be in levels not seen since 2016/17. Current lows around 1.2079, trend channel lows at 1.2045. 2017 low coming in at 1.1987 and the 2016 lows at 1.1777.

Chart: Short-term chart showing the trend channel on the low, pushing up to the weekly pivot. 

8 GBP

EUR/USD

Pivot: 1.1207

Scenario 1: Pushing away from the lows and now testing 50-day SMA at 1.1240. Trend resisting holding current moves higher, a push above 1.1239 we look for the 61.8% fib at 1.1265 and the multi daily highs at 1.1286. 200-day SMA at 1.1296 and the upper daily trend channel line at 1.1346.

Scenario 2: 1.1194/68 is your near term support. If this gives way then it's 1.1116/01 which has been a previous area of support. Prices did push through here recently and making a yearly low at 1.1027. This area sits on a previous breakout area at 1.1021. If we come under pressure we look at the sloping trend support at 1.0976. A break here could be significant with 1.0839/31 and 78.6% fib not much further.

Chart: Four-hour shows the trend resistance on the highs and the remaining fib levels. Seen a push from the recent lows.

8 EUR

Germany 30

Pivot: 11,676

Scenario 1: Short sharp sell-off fell passed the 50% into the 11,403/11,267 zone before rebounding. Looks like volatility has stabilised, 11,556 offering support on a few occasions. If we push any further then the recent support zone then we have a 61.8% fib at 11,166.

Scenario 2: Finding resistance between 11,741/801, 38.2% fib follows at 11,844 which is where a strong area of selling began. 50% at 12,000 with weekly pivot at 12,074, this sits in-between a breakdown zone at 12,043/104.

Chart: Four-hour chart shows the fib levels and the breakdown zones which may offer resistance. 

8 DAX

Wall Street

Pivot: 25,827

Scenario 1: Market drops passed the 38.2% before finding support. Short-term resistance at 26,044/097. If we push higher then its the 50% at 26,243. 61.8% fib at 26,518 and a previous area of support/resistance between 26,657/716.

Scenario 2: Looking for signs that this may start to nose dive south. Daily pivot at 25,827, below here if we push past 25,616/437 this takes out any short-term support. We could then be looking at again a more solid move on the big 38.2% fib. June lows at 24,603 is just in front of the big 50% fib at 24,502.

Chart: Four-hour shows the extreme sell off and strong bounce. Fib levels and breakdown areas are now in focus. 

8 Dow

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