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Daily Technical Round-up: Cable coming under increasing pressure

Michael Baker, Wednesday, 2 October 2019

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD

Pivot: 1.2283

Scenario 1: Cable coming under increasing pressure. 50% fib has broken and we have seen moves down to the 61.8% fib and previous support/resistance between 1.2211/.2196. This is key support, if this gives way then we could be looking at another push at the yearly lows. Before then we have a 76.8% fib at 1.2092.

Scenario 2: 1.2337/46 is a daily resistance, longs will want to get past here and aim for 1.2375/96. Taking out this level then we look at the coincided fib levels which are the 38.2% @ 1.2500 and 1.2528 @ 23.6% @ 1.2528. Overcoming here then one of the trend resistance would of given way, 50% fib at 1.2668 and 200-day SMA at 1.2729 and longer term trend resistance at 1.2782.

Chart: 50% fib broken out and now finding support at 1.2211/.2196.

2 GBP

EURUSD

Pivot: 1.0918

Scenario 1: Trading still hovering around the lows, not much buying shows market under pressure. Yearly lows are at 1.0879, looking back at May 2017 there is a multi-week low between 1.0831/39 which sits above a 78.6% fib at 1.0815.

Scenario 2: Longs will want this back above the weekly pivot and previous support between 1.0957/66. From there the next area is 1.1025/32 and then the 23.6% fib at 1.1005 and then the triangle break at 1.1025.

Chart: Four-hour chart showing new yearly lows, market looking to get above weekly pivot to take pressure off the downside.

2 EUR

Germany 30

Pivot: 12,324

Scenario 1: Quite a dramatic sell-off yesterday which has continued into the European open. Trading around the 25 September lows at 12,142, possible we will see this off further so look out for 12,080 and the 38.2% fib at 12,028. 50% fib at 11,882 sits on a previous support resistance zone.

Scenario 2: Market has flipped from strength to under pressure. Trading could easily unwind this move down, look for a push back up to 12,304. 12,496 is the recent highs which is also the September high.

Chart: Quick sharp sell-off yesterday, holding recent support but under pressure

2 DAX

Wall Street

Pivot: 26,728

Scenario 1: Found support at the 38.2% @ 26,458 after a sharp sell-off yesterday. Any further moves south we look for 26,366 which is a notable area in August which saw a breakout in September. 50% fib @ 26,194.

Scenario 2: 26,701/31 was a support from 24 September, possible we see resistance if we revisit this area. 27,000 was an area that longs would of wanted this to stay above, yesterdays sell off was too strong but its possible we will now see resistance up here. If we get through then longs will want to resume the strength we have seen recently.

Chart: 30-min chart showing the short sharp sell off, hovering around the lows so possible we see further weakness.

2 Dow

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