Back Week Ahead: Markets nervous ahead of Italian referendum 02 December 2016 The week ahead in forex, equities, indices and commodities. Italian referendum Italy’s referendum on constitutional reform is the main event this week. Voters head to the polls on Sunday, December 4th and we can expect to get initial results at any time from 22:00 (GMT). You can learn more about the market implications in our dedicated Italian referendum guide. It’s been billed as a vote of confidence in prime minister Matteo Renzi’s government and a No vote would be felt across the equity markets, with Italy’s creaking banking sector especially vulnerable. It would also impact the euro as it could lead to Italy leaving the Eurozone. According to Sentix, investors think there is now a one in five chance single currency bloc will lose its third largest economy in the next year. ECB Italy’s vote comes just days before the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. At the meeting, the bank will decide whether to extend its €1.74 trillion bond-buying programme beyond March 2017. Critics argue stimulus is inflating asset prices without stimulating growth or inflation. A rise in French and German inflation to 0.7% in November should help the ECB argue the programme is working. ECB chief Mario Draghi also bound to face questions on the outcome of the Italian referendum and, in the event of a ‘No’ vote, how the bank intends to respond. If Italian banks sour in the days between the referendum and the meeting, we may also see a direct policy response from the ECB. UK data On Monday, the UK’s services PMI is expected to offer some direction for sterling going into the week. So far, Britain’s all-important services sector has held up well following the Brexit vote. Then on Friday there is the UK’s inflation expectations report. Economic Calendar (All times GMT) Sunday, 4 December All day – Italian constitutional amendment referendum (exit polls due 22:00 GMT) Monday, 5 December 01:45 – China Caixin services PMI 09:00 – Eurozone final services PMI 09:30 – UK services PMI 15:00 – US ISM non-manufacturing PMI Tuesday, 6 December 03:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision and statement 07:00- German factory orders 10:00 – Revised Eurozone GDP 13:30 – US revised non-farm productivity, trade balance 15:00 – US factory orders Wednesday, 7 December 00:30 – Australian GDP 08:30 – UK Halifax house price index 09:30 UK manufacturing production 15:00 – Bank of Canada interest rate decision and statement 15:00 – NIESR UK GDP estimate 15:30 – US crude oil inventories 23:50 – Japan final GDP reading, current account, bank lending Thursday, 8 December 02:30 – China trade balance, imports, exports data 12:45 – ECB interest rate decision 13:30 – ECB press conference with Mario Draghi 13:30 – US weekly unemployment claims Friday, 9 December 00:01 – RICS UK housing price balance 01:30 – China PPI and CPI inflation 06:00 – Japan preliminary machine tool orders 07:00 – Germany imports, exports, current account and trade balance figures 09:30 – UK consumer inflation expectations, trade balance figures 15:00 –US preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment Earnings Calendar Tuesday, 6 December Ashtead Group (AHT) – S1/2017 Thursday, 8 December Costco Wholesale (COST) – Q1/2017, EPS estimate 1.193 Sports Direct International (SPD) – S1/2017, EPS estimate 0.165 TUI (TUI) – Y/2016, EPS estimate 1.037 Source: Bloomberg START TRADING or LOGIN as existing customer Any information, analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on this page is for information purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk and ETX Capital accepts no responsibility for any adverse trading decisions. You should seek independent advice if you do not understand the associated risks.